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Diversification, Risk Aversion and Expectation in a Holdout Scenario

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Eggert
  • Maximilian Stephan
  • Janine Temme
  • Handirk von Ungern-Sternberg

Abstract

We argue a holdout is not a destructive investor behaviour but a rational investment decision. This investment decision is characterised by the mean-variance approach. We investigate intercreditor conflict by diverse portfolio structure. We demonstrate that at some point during the Greek (2012) and Argentine (2005) debt restructuring programs it was reasonable for the investor to hold out. This model shows that the investment decision is based on the portfolio structure, risk aversion and expected payment of the debtor, so there is no free-rider behaviour. On the contrary, the investor harms herself when playing a destructive or uncooperative strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Eggert & Maximilian Stephan & Janine Temme & Handirk von Ungern-Sternberg, 2015. "Diversification, Risk Aversion and Expectation in a Holdout Scenario," CESifo Working Paper Series 5527, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5527
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcus Miller & Dania Thomas, 2007. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: The Judge, the Vultures and Creditor Rights," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(10), pages 1491-1509, October.
    2. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default in "Bad Times" ?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 352-360, 04-05.
    3. Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
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    5. Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Consumption, stock returns, and the gains from international risk-sharing," Working Papers 96-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Weinschelbaum, Federico & Wynne, Jose, 2005. "Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, September.
    7. Eric Helleiner, 2008. "The Mystery of the Missing Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism," Contributions to Political Economy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 91-113.
    8. Daniels, Kenneth & Ramirez, Gabriel G., 2007. "Debt restructurings, holdouts, and exit consents," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Kenneth Rogoff & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2002. "Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-8.
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    12. Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Consumption, Stock Returns, and the Gains from International Risk-Sharing," NBER Working Papers 5410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "Do Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 247-264, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt; holdout; mean-variance approach; collective action clause;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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