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The great leveraging

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  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

What can history can tell us about the relationship between the banking system, financial crises, the global economy, and economic performance? Evidence shows that in the advanced economies we live in a world that is more financialized than ever before as measured by importance of credit in the economy. I term this long-run evolution "The Great Leveraging" and present a ten-point examination of its main contours and implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The great leveraging," BIS Working Papers 398, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:398
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
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    4. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 2011.
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    7. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colvin, Christopher L. & de Jong, Abe & Fliers, Philip T., 2015. "Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 97-121.
    2. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-75.
    3. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    4. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    5. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Credit contractions and unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 573-593.
    6. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2017. "It ain’t over till it’s over: A global perspective on the Great Moderation-Great Recession interconnection," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(49), pages 4946-4969, October.
    7. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. repec:bpj:aelcon:v:9:y:2019:i:2:p:21:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    10. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    11. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Domonkos Tomáš & Ostrihoň Filip & Šikulová Ivana & Širaňová Mária, 2017. "Analysing the Relevance of the MIP Scoreboard's Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 239(1), pages 32-52, February.
    13. Antonio Torrero Mañas, 2014. "España, una recesión de balance," Working Papers 10/14, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    14. Christopher M. Meissner, 2013. "Capital Flows, Credit Booms, and Financial Crises in the Classical Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 18814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:bla:buecrs:v:70:y:2018:i:1:p:e50-e67 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Damian Tobin, 2013. "Renminbi internationalisation: precedents and implications," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 81-99, May.
    18. Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels, 2014. "1980–2008: The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine and What It Bodes for the Future," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-29, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial development; credit; booms; crises; recessions; global imbalances; Great Recession; fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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