IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates

  • Mathias Drehmann

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Claudio Borio

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Kostas Tsatsaronis

    (Bank for International Settlements)

We investigate the performance of different variables as anchors for setting the level of the countercyclical regulatory capital buffer requirements for banks. The gap between the ratio of credit to GDP and its long-term backward-looking trend performs best as an indicator for the accumulation of capital, because this variable captures the build-up of systemwide vulnerabilities that typically lead to banking crises. Other indicators, such as credit spreads, are better at indicating the release phase, as they are contemporaneous signals of banking sector distress that can precede a credit crunch.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 7 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 189-240

in new window

Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:4:a:8
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
  3. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2011. "The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis," Working Paper Series 1335, European Central Bank.
  4. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  6. Jacob Gyntelberg & Philip Wooldridge, 2008. "Interbank rate fixings during the recent turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  7. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, 09.
  8. John Boyd & Gianni De Nicolò & Elena Loukoianova, 2010. "Banking Crises and Crisis Dating: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 3134, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2005. "The Welfare Cost of Bank Capital Requirements," 2005 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
  15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
    [This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  16. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Kohler, Marion & Upper, Christian, 2009. "Financial Crises and Economic Activity," CEPR Discussion Papers 7495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2011. "The Countercyclical Capital Buffer Of Basel Iii: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers wp2011_1102, CEMFI.
  20. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  21. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
  23. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2003. "Towards a macroprudential framework for financial supervision and regulation?," BIS Working Papers 128, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
  25. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
  26. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Low probability, high impact: Policy making and extreme events," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-121.
  27. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
  28. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  29. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 261-298, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:4:a:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.