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Financial Crises and Economic Activity

Listed author(s):
  • Stephen G. Cecchetti
  • Marion Kohler
  • Christian Upper

We study the output costs of 40 systemic banking crises since 1980. Most, but not all, crises in our sample coincide with a sharp contraction in output from which it took several years to recover. Our main findings are as follows. First, the current financial crisis is unlike any others in terms of a wide range of economic factors. Second, the output losses of past banking crises were higher when they were accompanied by a currency crisis or when growth was low at the onset of the crisis. When accompanied by a sovereign debt default, a systemic banking crisis was less costly. And, third, there is a tendency for systemic banking crises to have lasting negative output effects.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15379.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15379.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
Publication status: published as Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009. "Financial crises and economic activity," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-135.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15379
Note: ME
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
  2. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
  3. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, "undated". "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," Working Papers 6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
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  6. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  7. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
  8. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
  9. Kok, Christoffer & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2006. "Euro area banking sector integration: using hierarchical cluster analysis techniques," Working Paper Series 0627, European Central Bank.
  10. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Rodrik, Dani, 2009. "Growth After the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
  13. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
  15. Kok, Christoffer & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2006. "Euro area banking sector integration: using hierarchical cluster analysis techniques," Working Paper Series 627, European Central Bank.
  16. Charles Goodhart & Dirk Schoenmaker, 2009. "Fiscal Burden Sharing in Cross-Border Banking Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(1), pages 141-165, March.
  17. M J Artis & W Zhang, 2001. "Core and Periphery in EMU: A Cluster Analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 6(2), pages 47-58, September.
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