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The Consequences of Banking Crises on Public Debt

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  • Davide Furceri

    () (OECD and University of Palermo)

  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka

    () (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69003, France; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne, UMR 5824, 93, chemin des Mouilles, Ecully, F-69130, France; ENS-LSH, Lyon, France)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of banking crises on public debt. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1980 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce a significant and long-lasting increase in government debt. The effect is a function of the severity of the crisis. In particular, we find that for severe crises, comparable to the most recent one in terms of output losses, banking crises are followed by a medium-term increase of about 37 percentage points in the government gross debt-to-GDP ratio. We also find that the debt ratio increased more in smaller countries, with worse initial fiscal positions and with a lower quality of institutions (in terms of political stability and democracy). The increase in government debt is also a function of the size of the fiscal stimulus to counter the economic downturns and varies with the type of banking intervention policy, with liquidity support to banks associated with a larger increase in public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2010. "The Consequences of Banking Crises on Public Debt," Working Papers 1015, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:1015
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    Cited by:

    1. Schularick, Moritz, 2012. "Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century," Discussion Papers 2012/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
    3. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    4. Teimouri, Sheida & Dutta, Nabamita, 2016. "Investment and bank credit recovery after banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 306-327.
    5. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The Euro Area Crisis: Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 683-710, September.
    6. Furceri, Davide & Guichard, Stéphanie & Rusticelli, Elena, 2012. "The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-344.
    7. Andersson, Fredrik NG, 2016. "A Blessing in Disguise? Banking Crises and Institutional Change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-147.
    8. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    10. Ambrosius, Christian, 2017. "What explains the speed of recovery from banking crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 257-287.
    11. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2013. "The effects of financial crisis on fiscal positions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 197-213.
    12. Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2010. "Une lecture de la crise à la lumière des crises passées," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 19-42.
    13. Mikhail Stolbov, 2014. "How Are Interbank and Sovereign Debt Markets Linked? Evidence from 14 OECD Countries, the Euro Area and Russia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 331-348, June.
    14. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "How costly are debt crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 726-742.
    15. Bernal-Verdugo, Lorenzo E. & Furceri, Davide & Guillaume, Dominique, 2013. "Banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1202-1219.
    16. Gabriele Galati & John Lewis & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Have market views on the sustainability of fiscal burdens influenced monetary authorities' credibility?," DNB Working Papers 304, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2017. "Economic costs of alternative monetary policy responses to speculative currency attacks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 419-434.
    18. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    19. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2014. "Financial stability indicators and public debt developments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 158-179.
    20. Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo & Davide Furceri & Dominique M. Guillaume, 2013. "The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output; The Role of Reforms," IMF Working Papers 13/91, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Tanja Markovic-Hribernik & Matej Tomec, 2015. "Bad Bank And Other Possible Banks’ Rescuing Models – The Case Of Slovenia," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 128-141, January.
    22. Riccardo De Bonis & Massimiliano Stacchini, 2013. "Does Government Debt Affect Bank Credit?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 289-310, December.
    23. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:2-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Clara Galliani & Stefano Zedda, 2015. "Will the Bail-in Break the Vicious Circle Between Banks and their Sovereign?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 597-614, April.
    25. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2017. "Financial Crises and the Composition of Public Finances: Evidence from OECD Countries," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output Growth; Financial Crisis; CEECs;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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