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Fiscal Episodes, Technological Progress and Market Power

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We assess the impact of fiscal adjustments (and technology) on the evolution of markups in a panel of 14 OECD countries. We allow for smooth changes in the technological parameters by generating measures of TFP compatible with markups and assess the interaction between the two variables. Our results with narrative action-based data show counter-cyclicality since negative fiscal shocks increase markups. Moreover, in times of economic contraction the degree of counter-cyclicality of negative (positive) government spending (tax) shocks is larger than during economic expansions. In addition, markups have a pro-cyclical behaviour after a productivity shock. However, when identifying fiscal consolidations using changes of the cyclically adjusted primary balance, one obtains expansionary effects and a pro-cyclical behaviour in terms of markups and aggregate demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2015. "Fiscal Episodes, Technological Progress and Market Power," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp092015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    imperfect competition; TFP; fiscal consolidation; local projection; business cycle; impulse response functions; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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