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Demand, Supply and Markup Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos D Santos
  • Luís F Costa
  • Paulo B Brito

Abstract

Markup cyclicality has been central for debating policy effectiveness and understanding business cycle fluctuations. However, measuring the cyclicality of markups is as important as understanding the microeconomic mechanisms underlying that cyclicality. The latter requires measurement of firm-level markups and separating supply from demand shocks. We construct a novel dataset with detailed (multi-) product-level prices for individual firms. By estimating a structural model of supply and demand, we evaluate how companies adjust prices and marginal costs as a response to shocks. We find that price markups respond positively to supply shocks and negatively to demand shocks. The mechanism explaining the observed markup behaviour is the same for both shocks: incomplete pass-through of changes along the marginal cost curve to price adjustments. These observed price and output responses are consistent with dynamic demand considerations. Finally, we use our estimated shocks to show how aggregate markup fluctuations in the sample period are mostly explained by aggregate demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos D Santos & Luís F Costa & Paulo B Brito, 2022. "Demand, Supply and Markup Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1620-1645.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:644:p:1620-1645.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueab090
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202302 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rui Faustino, 2019. "Deep Habits in New Keynesian model with durable goods," Working Papers REM 2019/0106, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Tiago Pinho Pereira & Miguel Sousa, 2024. "Business group affiliation and product market competition," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 51(1), pages 39-72, March.
    4. Ana Cristina Soares & Rita Sousa, 2023. "Markup premium of Portuguese exporters," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

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