IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area

  • David Haugh
  • Patrice Ollivaud
  • David Turner
Registered author(s):

    This paper analyses recent large movements in the yield spread for sovereign bonds as between Germany and other euro area countries. While the general increase in risk aversion that has characterised the financial crisis is an important factor on its own, it is found that this has also magnified the importance of fiscal performance, in particular as measured by the ratio of debt service to tax receipts and expected fiscal deficits. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that such effects are non-linear, so that incremental deteriorations in fiscal performance lead to ever larger increases in the spread. These findings imply that financial market reaction could become an increasingly important constraint on fiscal policy for some countries, a feature which was much less apparent in the years prior to the financial crisis when general risk aversion was abnormally low. Quels sont les déterminants des primes de risque des États ? : Une analyse récente de la zone euro Cet article analyse les récents mouvements importants des écarts de taux des obligations d’État des pays de la zone euro avec l’Allemagne. L’augmentation généralisée de l’aversion au risque qui a accompagné la crise financière est un facteur important en soi. L’article montre en outre que ce phénomène a amplifié l’impact des performances budgétaires, en particulier quand elles sont mesurées par le ratio du service de la dette aux recettes fiscales et par les déficits budgétaires anticipés. De plus, ces effets se révèlent non linéaires, ce qui se traduit par le fait que les détériorations supplémentaires des performances budgétaires amènent à des augmentations toujours plus importantes des écarts de taux. Ces résultats suggèrent que les réactions des marchés financiers pourraient devenir une contrainte de plus en plus importante à la politique budgétaire de certains pays, une caractéristique qui était beaucoup moins visible durant les années antérieures à la crise où l’aversion générale au risque était anormalement basse.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/222675756166
    Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 403 Forbidden (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/222675756166 [303 See Other]--> http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/what-drives-sovereign-risk-premiums_222675756166). If this is indeed the case, please notify ()


    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 718.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 22 Jul 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:718-en
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
    Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
    Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
    Web page: http://www.oecd.org
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:718-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.