IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ntj/journl/v56y2003i3p463-85.html

Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits

Author

Listed:
  • Gale, William G.
  • Orszag, Peter R.

Abstract

The effects of fiscal policy on the economy have received substantial attention in academic and policy circles. We review this literature in light of recent policy debates and new research and obtain three results. First, other things equal, deficits reduce national saving and future national income, even if international capital inflows avert an increase in interest rates. Second, the recent fiscal deterioration implies significant declines in future national income. Third, studies incorporating the best available information about expected future deficits tend to find significant effects of expected deficits on current long-term bond yields, controlling for other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gale, William G. & Orszag, Peter R., 2003. "Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(3), pages 463-485, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:56:y:2003:i:3:p:463-85
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2003.3.02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2003.3.02
    Download Restriction: Access is restricted to subscribers and members of the National Tax Association.
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2003.3.02
    Download Restriction: Access is restricted to subscribers and members of the National Tax Association.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17310/ntj.2003.3.02?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    2. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stanley Fischer & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1994. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fisc94-1, March.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Tax policy and international capital flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 675-697, December.
    5. B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern91-2, March.
    6. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2000. "Social Security Reform and National Saving in an Era of Budget Surpluses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 1-72.
    7. Martin Feldstein, 1986. "Budget Deficits, Tax Rules, and real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Evans, Paul, 1986. "Is the dollar high because of large budget deficits?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 227-249, November.
    9. Stanley Fischer & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1994. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    2. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2001. "Una Revisión del COmportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Felipe Morandé & Rodrigo Vergara & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edit (ed.),Análisis Empírico del Ahorro en Chile, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 13-48, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Budget Deficits and the Balance of Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Herwartz, H. & Xu, F., 2010. "A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-54, February.
    7. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2019. "Saving and investment causality: implications for financial integration in transition countries of Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-416, April.
    8. Di Giannatale, Sonia & Roa, María José, 2016. "Formal Saving in Developing Economies: Barriers, Interventions, and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8107, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2006. "The saving-investment relationship revisited: New evidence from multivariate heterogeneous panel cointegration analyses," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 402-419, June.
    10. Idil UZ, 2010. "DETERMINANTS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT: The Relation between Internal and External Balances in Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    11. Kateřina Šímová, 2020. "Verification of Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (Example of European Union Countries) [Verifikace Feldsteinovy-Horiokovy hádanky (příklad zemí Evropské unie)]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2), pages 43-60.
    12. Mamingi, Nlandu, 1997. "Saving-investment correlations and capital mobility: The experience of developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 605-626, December.
    13. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    14. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Capital mobility in the Caucasus," MPRA Paper 38184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2012.
    15. Kateřina Šímová, 2020. "Verification of Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (Example of European Union Countries) [Verifikace Feldsteinovy–Horiokovy hádanky (příklad zemí Evropské unie)]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2).
    16. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1998. "Boom and bust in capital flows to developing countries: what South Asia can learn from recent financial crises," Kiel Working Papers 853, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "What do budget deficits do?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 95-119.
    18. George Furstenberg, 1998. "From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration: A Review Essay," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-84, January.
    19. Gundlach, Erich, 1996. "Solow meets market socialism: regional convergence of output per worker in China," Kiel Working Papers 726, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Jos Jansen, W, 1996. "Estimating saving-investment correlations: evidence for OECD countries based on an error correction model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 749-781, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:56:y:2003:i:3:p:463-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The University of Chicago Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ntanet.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.