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Capital mobility in the Caucasus

  • Jamilov, Rustam
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    This paper examines the degree of capital mobility in the countries of the Caucasus. We employ a simple model developed in the seminal paper by Feldstein and Horioka (1980). First, we estimate the model using conventional time-series econometrics in order to capture the short-run dynamics. Then, we construct a panel of 6 countries of the Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkey – and obtain the long-run estimates by applying a panel cointegration approach. To that end, we make use of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimation method for heterogeneous panels, developed by Pedroni (2000). We estimate the long-run saving retention ratio to be quite high, showing that capital mobility in the Caucasus is considerably low. In addition, we also look at the country ratings of the Index of Economic Freedom to compare our results with the official rankings in market openness. We also put our findings in an international context, and confirm that Caucasus is relatively financially restrained. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for the region's policy-relevant issues such as financial integration, human capital mobility, across-border trading, fiscal and monetary policy, exchange rate volatility, solvency management, responsive consumption smoothing, and recession resistance.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38184/1/MPRA_paper_38184.pdf
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38184.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2012
    Date of revision: Apr 2012
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38184
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    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    2. W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "International Capital Mobility: Evidence from Panel Data," International Finance 0310003, EconWPA.
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    9. Easterly, William R & Mauro, Paolo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Money Demand and Seigniorage-Maximizing Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 583-603, May.
    10. Helmut Reisen & Hélène Yèches, 1991. "Time-Varying Estimates on the Openness of the Capital Account in Korea and Taiwan," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 42, OECD Publishing.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
    13. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
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    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    19. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1997. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Econometrics 9703001, EconWPA.
    22. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
    23. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1998. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 169-88, April.
    24. Kim, Hongkee & Oh, Keun-Yeob & Jeong, Chan-Woo, 2005. "Panel cointegration results on international capital mobility in Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-82, February.
    25. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Chakrabarti, Avik, 2005. "Openness, size, and the saving-investment relationship," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 283-293, September.
    26. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-27, May.
    27. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    28. Haque, Nadeem U. & Montiel, Peter, 1991. "Capital mobility in developing countries: Some empirical tests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1391-1398, October.
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