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Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Hiro Ito

Abstract

We examine the open macroeconomic policy choices of developing economies from the perspective of the economic "trilemma" hypothesis. We construct an index of divergence of the three trilemma policy choices, and evaluate its patterns in recent decades. We find that the three dimensions of the trilemma configurations are converging towards a "middle ground" among emerging market economies -- managed exchange rate flexibility underpinned by sizable holdings of international reserves, intermediate levels of monetary independence, and controlled financial integration. Emerging market economies with more converged policy choices tend to experience smaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with relatively low international reserves/GDP could experience higher levels of output volatility when they choose a policy combination with a greater degree of policy divergence. Yet this heightened output volatility effect does not apply to economies with relatively high international reserves/GDP holding.

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  • Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," NBER Working Papers 17806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17806
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    Cited by:

    1. Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila & Rougier, Eric, 2016. "The effect of macroeconomic instability on FDI flows: A gravity estimation of the impact of regional integration in the case of Euro-Mediterranean agreements," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-91.
    2. repec:jfr:rwe111:v:6:y:2015:i:3:p:36-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christopher Andrew Hartwell, 2014. "Capital Controls and the Determinants of Entrepreneurship," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 434-456, December.
    5. Jean Pierre Allegret, 2012. "Responses of Monetary Authorities in Emerging Economies to International Financial Crises: What Do We Really know?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-32.
    6. Jon Frost & Ruben van Tilburg, 2014. "Financial globalization or great financial expansion? The impact of capital flows on credit and banking crises," DNB Working Papers 441, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie David Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2013. "The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 447-458, August.
    8. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2015. "Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of Monetary Policy Autonomy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 33-66, October.
    9. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
    10. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
    12. Yu Hsing, 2012. "Impacts of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Greece," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 373-378.
    13. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2014. "The More Divergent, the Better? Lessons on Trilemma Policies and Crises for Asia," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 31(2), pages 21-54, September.
    14. Castillo, Paul & Vega, Hugo & Serrano, Enrique & Burga, Carlos, 2016. "De-dollarization of credit in Peru: the role of unconventional monetary policy tools," Working Papers 2016-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Capital mobility in the Caucasus," MPRA Paper 38184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2012.
    16. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:135-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Samuel Ligonnière, 2017. "Trilemma, Dilemma and Global Players," Working Papers 2017-15, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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