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Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination

  • Ito, Hiro

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Kawai, Masahiro

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

This paper presents a theoretical framework for policy making based on the “impossible trinity” or the “trilemma” hypothesis. A simple optimization model shows that placing more weight in terms of preference for each of the three open macroeconomic policies—exchange rate stability, financial market openness, and monetary policy independence—contributes to a higher level of achievement in that particular policy. The paper goes on to develop the first empirical framework in the literature to investigate the joint determination of the triad open macroeconomic policies based on the trilemma hypothesis. Results from applying the seemingly unrelated regression estimation method and employing other robustness checks show that simple economic and structural fundamentals determine the trilemma policy combinations. Finally, the paper examines how deviations from the “optimal” trilemma policy combinations evolve around the time of a financial crisis.

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Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 456.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 30 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0456
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  1. Hiro Ito & Masahiro Kawai, 2012. "New Measures of the Trilemma Hypothesis : Implications for Asia," Finance Working Papers 23331, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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  7. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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  11. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2013. "Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 19448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
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  15. repec:oup:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:1:p:300-351 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
  17. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," IZA Discussion Papers 3475, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization Growth and Crises," UCLA Economics Working Papers 834, UCLA Department of Economics.
  19. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  20. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-97, December.
  21. Heller, H Robert, 1978. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 308-21, August.
  22. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Cohesion: Historical Perspectives and Political-Economy Considerations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 797-822, December.
  23. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2011. "The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 641-659, June.
  24. Rizzo, Jean-Marc, 1998. "The economic determinants of the choice of an exchange rate regime: a probit analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 283-287, June.
  25. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
  27. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2010. "The Empirics of International Monetary Transmission: Identification and the Impossible Trinity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 679-713, 06.
  28. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
  29. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
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