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The Empirics of International Monetary Transmission: Identification and the Impossible Trinity

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  • JOHN C. BLUEDORN
  • CHRISTOPHER BOWDLER

Abstract

The transmission of monetary policy across borders is central to many open economy models. Research has tried to evaluate the "impossible trinity" through estimating international interest rate linkages under alternative exchange rate regimes using realized base country interest rates. Such interest rates include anticipated and endogenous elements, which need not propagate internationally. We compare international interest rate responses under pegged and non-pegged regimes to identified, unanticipated, and exogenous U.S. interest rate changes and realized U.S. interest rate changes. We find important differences in estimated transmission from the two sets of measures-identified interest rate changes demonstrate a greater concordance with the impossible trinity than realized rate changes. Copyright (c) 2010 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2010. "The Empirics of International Monetary Transmission: Identification and the Impossible Trinity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 679-713, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:4:p:679-713
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    Cited by:

    1. Amit Ghosh & Ramya Ghosh, 2012. "Capital controls, exchange rate regime and monetary policy independence in India," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 212-230.
    2. Helen Popper & Alex Mandilaras & Graham Bird, 2011. "Trilemma Stability and International Macroeconomic Archetypes in Developing Economies," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0311, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2015. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 2, pages 013-078 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    5. Bogdan Căpraru & Iulian Ihnatov, 2011. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Arrangements On Transmission Of Interest Rates And Monetary Policy Independence: Evidence From A Group Of New Eu Member Countries "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 71-81, november.
    6. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    7. An, Lian & Kim, Yoonbai & You, Yu, 2016. "Floating exchange rates and macroeconomic independence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 23-35.
    8. Ito, Hiro & Kawai, Masahiro, 2014. "Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination," ADBI Working Papers 456, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Yu You & Yoonbai Kim & Xiaomei Ren, 2014. "Do Capital Controls Enhance Monetary Independence?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 475-489, August.
    11. Obstfeld, Maurice & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2017. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 12093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Geert Bekaert & Arnaud Mehl, 2017. "On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 23124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary independence," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 213-225 Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 16/108, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Hyeon-seung Huh & Philip Inyeob Ji & Cyn-Young Park, 2016. "The ‘trilemma’ hypothesis and policy implications for Fiji," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 30(1), pages 99-119, May.
    16. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2015. "Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Ishak Demir & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/195, International Monetary Fund.

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