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The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

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  • Òscar Jordà
  • Sanjay R. Singh
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

Does monetary policy have persistent effects on the productive capacity of the economy? Yes, we find that such effects are economically and statistically significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) identification of exogenous monetary policy fluctuations using the trilemma of international finance; (2) merged data from two new international historical cross-country databases reaching back to the nineteenth century; and (3) econometric methods robust to long-horizon inconsistent estimates. Notably, the capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) exhibit strong hysteresis, whereas labor does not; and money is non-neutral for a much longer period of time than is customarily assumed. We show that a New Keynesian model with endogenous TFP growth can reconcile these empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 26666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26666
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    Cited by:

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    4. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2021. "Real exchange rate and international spillover effects of US technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2019. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," DNB Working Papers 632, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Emmanuelle Faure & Paul Hubert, 2020. "Setting New Priorities for the ECB's Mandate," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1f03f28hhu8, Sciences Po.
    7. Tervala, Juha, 2021. "Hysteresis and the welfare costs of recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-144.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," Staff Reports 925, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    10. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2533, European Central Bank.
    11. Tim Willems, 2020. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 41-58, October.
    12. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2020. "21st Century Macro," NBER Working Papers 26791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Laura Gómez-Acevedo & Marc Hofstetter, 2020. "Disinflations and income distribution," Documentos CEDE 018481, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    14. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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