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Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Bergeaud

    (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Gilbert Cette

    () (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Rémy Lecat

    () (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

In order to examine productivity waves and convergence processes, we study productivity trends, trend breaks, and levels for 13 advanced countries between 1890 and 2012. We highlight two productivity waves, a big one following the second industrial revolution and a smaller one following the ICT revolution. The convergence process has been erratic, halted by inappropriate institutions, technology shocks, financial crises, and above all wars, which led to major productivity level leaps, downwards for countries experiencing war on their soil, and upwards for other countries. Productivity trend breaks have been identified following wars, global financial crises, global supply shocks, and major policy changes. The upward trend break for the U.S. in the mid-1990s has been confirmed, as has the downward trend break for the euro area in the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Post-Print hal-01440309, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01440309
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12185
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440309
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:fip:fedfel:00134 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stephane Auray & Aurelien Eyquem, 2017. "Heterogeneity, Convergence and Imbalances in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2017-64, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    3. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    4. repec:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0023-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:2:p:1054-1063 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Borio, Claudia & Disyatat, Piti & Juselius, Mikael & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates," Research Discussion Papers 36/2017, Bank of Finland.
    7. repec:sls:ipmsls:v:34:y:2018:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Michael T. Kiley, 2018. "What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Paul, Pascal, 2017. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 2017-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Gilles Dufrénot & Meryem Rhouzlane, 2018. "Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century," Working Papers halshs-01821669, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E22; N10; O47; convergence; global history; productivity; technological change;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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