IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/revinw/v62y2016i3p420-444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Bergeaud
  • Gilbert Cette
  • Rémy Lecat

Abstract

In order to examine productivity waves and convergence processes, we study productivity trends, trend breaks, and levels for 13 advanced countries between 1890 and 2012. We highlight two productivity waves, a big one following the second industrial revolution and a smaller one following the ICT revolution. The convergence process has been erratic, halted by inappropriate institutions, technology shocks, financial crises, and above all wars, which led to major productivity level leaps, downwards for countries experiencing war on their soil, and upwards for other countries. Productivity trend breaks have been identified following wars, global financial crises, global supply shocks, and major policy changes. The upward trend break for the U.S. in the mid-1990s has been confirmed, as has the downward trend break for the euro area in the same period.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:62:y:2016:i:3:p:420-444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roiw.12185
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aghion, Philippe & Askenazy, Philippe & Bourlès, Renaud & Cette, Gilbert & Dromel, Nicolas, 2009. "Education, market rigidities and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 62-65, January.
    2. Hervé Boulhol & Alain de Serres, 2010. "Have developed countries escaped the curse of distance?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 113-139, January.
    3. Alfred Kleinknecht, 1987. "Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-18559-7, September.
    4. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-361, May.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    7. Liu, Dan & Meissner, Christopher M., 2015. "Market potential and the rise of US productivity leadership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 72-87.
    8. Cette, G., 2014. "Does ICT remain a powerful engine of growth?," Working papers 476, Banque de France.
    9. Robert Inklaar & Mary O'Mahony & Marcel Timmer, 2005. "ICT AND EUROPE's PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE: INDUSTRY‐LEVEL GROWTH ACCOUNT COMPARISONS WITH THE UNITED STATES," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(4), pages 505-536, December.
    10. Marcel P. Timmer & Robert Inklaar & Mary O'Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2011. "Productivity and Economic Growth in Europe: A Comparative Industry Perspective," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 21, pages 3-23, Spring.
    11. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    12. McLean, Ian W., 2007. "Why was Australia so rich?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 635-656, October.
    13. Gordon, Robert J, 2004. "Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Europe Chasing the American Frontier," CEPR Discussion Papers 4415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 2006. "Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework," Scholarly Articles 4554121, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    15. Philippe Aghion, 2009. "Growth and Education," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 27936.
    16. Harry Jerome, 1934. "Mechanization in Industry," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number jero34-1.
    17. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2006. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 269-314, 04-05.
    18. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    19. Crafts, Nicholas & O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2013. "Twentieth Century Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 9633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Jakob B. Madsen, 2014. "Human Capital and the World Technology Frontier," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 676-692, October.
    21. Harry Jerome, 1934. "Changes in Mechanization: Non-Manufacturing Industries," NBER Chapters, in: Mechanization in Industry, pages 120-178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 5(1), pages 3-34.
    23. Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez, 2012. "ICT demand behaviour: an international comparison," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 397-410, June.
    24. Harald Edquist, 2011. "CAN INVESTMENT IN INTANGIBLES EXPLAIN THE SWEDISH PRODUCTIVITY BOOM IN THE 1990s?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(4), pages 658-682, December.
    25. repec:hrv:faseco:30752414 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    27. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March.
    28. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June.
    29. Maury, T-P. & Pluyaud, B., 2004. "Les ruptures de tendance de la productivité par employé de quelques grands pays industrialisés," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 121, pages 70-86.
    30. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Adam Tooze, 2013. "Machine tools and mass production in the armaments boom: Germany and the United States, 1929–44," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(4), pages 953-974, November.
    31. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 385-406, June.
    32. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    33. Romer, Paul M, 1996. "Why, Indeed, in America? Theory, History, and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 202-206, May.
    34. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    35. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Gilbert Cette, 2014. "Presidential Conference Does ICT remain a powerful engine of growth?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(4), pages 473-492.
    37. Gilbert Cette & Yusuf Kocoglu & Jacques Mairesse, 2009. "Productivity Growth and Levels in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 15577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. repec:oxf:wpaper:117.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Broadberry, S N, 1997. "The Long Run Growth and Productivity Performance of the United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 403-424, September.
    40. Broadberry, Stephen N., 1993. "Manufacturing and the Convergence Hypothesis: What the Long-Run Data Show," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 772-795, December.
    41. Alfred Kleinknecht, 1987. "Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-11175-6, September.
    42. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
    43. Clément Bosquet & Michel Fouquin, 2008. "Productivité du travail : la fin du processus de convergence ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 125-142.
    44. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262012638.
    45. Harry Jerome, 1934. "Changes in Mechanization in Selected Manufacturing Industries," NBER Chapters, in: Mechanization in Industry, pages 55-119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Pilat, Dirk, 1993. "The Sectoral Productivity Performance of Japan and the U.S., 1885-1990," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 39(4), pages 357-375, December.
    47. Dirk Pilat & Franck Lee, 2001. "Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries: A Source of Growth Differentials in the OECD?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2001/4, OECD Publishing.
    48. Robert J. Gordon, 1999. "U.S. Economic Growth since 1870: One Big Wave?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 123-128, May.
    49. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Roger W. Ferguson & William L. Wascher, 2004. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Lessons from Past Productivity Booms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    51. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "Productivity Dynamics in a Large Sample of Countries: A Panel Study," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(2), pages 247-272, June.
    52. Clément Bosquet & Michel Fouquin, 2008. "Productivité du travail : la fin du processus de convergence ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 125-142.
    53. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
    54. Broadberry, S N & Crafts, N F R, 1990. "Explaining Anglo-American Productivity Differences in the Mid-Twentieth Century," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(4), pages 375-402, Special I.
    55. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "U.S. Productivity Growth: The Slowdown Has Returned After a Temporary Revival," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 13-19, Spring.
    56. Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D Oliner & Daniel E Sichel, 2008. "Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 23-39, July.
    57. Nelson, Richard R & Wright, Gavin, 1992. "The Rise and Fall of American Technological Leadership: The Postwar Era in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1931-1964, December.
    58. >S. N. Broadberry, 1997. "The Long Run Growth and Productivity Performance of the United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 403-424, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    2. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.
    3. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2015. "GDP per capita in advanced countries over the 20th century," Working papers 549, Banque de France.
    4. Gilbert CETTE, 2015. "Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 65-83, 4th quart.
    5. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2014. "Le produit intérieur brut par habitant sur longue période en France et dans les pays avancés : le rôle de la productivité et de l’emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 474(1), pages 5-34.
    6. Gilbert Cette & Christian Clerc & Lea Bresson, 2015. "Contribution of ICT Diffusion to Labour Productivity Growth: The United States, Canada, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom, 1970-2013," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 28, pages 81-88, Spring.
    7. Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez & Giorgio Presidente & Vincenzo Spiezia, 2019. "Measuring ‘indirect’ investments in ICT in OECD countries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 348-364, May.
    8. Cette, G. & Clerc, C. & Bresson, L., 2015. "Diffusion et contribution à la croissance des TIC aux États-Unis, dans la zone euro et au Royaume-Uni," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 200, pages 83-90.
    9. Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat & Carole Ly-Marin, 2017. "Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 71-90.
    10. Gilbert Cette & Aurélien Devillard & Vincenzo Spiezia, 2022. "Growth Factors in Developed Countries: A 1960–2019 Growth Accounting Decomposition," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 159-185, June.
    11. Gilbert Cette, 2014. "Does ICT Remain a Powerful Engine of Growth," Post-Print hal-01463929, HAL.
    12. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    13. repec:bfr:rueban:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2020. "Convergence of GDP per capita in advanced countries over the twentieth century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2509-2526, November.
    15. Gilbert Cette & Yusuf Kocoglu & Jacques Mairesse, 2009. "Productivity Growth and Levels in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 15577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    17. De Visscher, Stef & Eberhardt, Markus & Everaert, Gerdie, 2020. "Estimating and testing the multicountry endogenous growth model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    18. Raquel Ortega-Argilés, 2012. "The Transatlantic Productivity Gap: A Survey Of The Main Causes," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 395-419, July.
    19. Marianna Epicoco, 2021. "Technological Revolutions and Economic Development: Endogenous and Exogenous Fluctuations," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(3), pages 1437-1461, September.
    20. Gilbert Cette & Simon Corde & Rémy Lecat, 2017. "Stagnation of productivity in France: A legacy of the crisis or a structural slowdown?," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 11-36.
    21. Johanna Vogel, 2015. "The two faces of R&D and human capital: Evidence from Western European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(3), pages 525-551, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:62:y:2016:i:3:p:420-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.