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Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress

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  • Ana Aizcorbe

    () (Department of Economics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, 20230, USA.)

  • Stephen D Oliner

    () (Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, 20551, USA.)

  • Daniel E Sichel

    () (Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, 20551, USA.)

Abstract

This paper examines three questions motivated by previous research on semiconductors and productivity growth: Why did semiconductor prices fall so rapidly in the second half of the 1990s? Why has the rate of price decline slowed since 2001? And to what extent are these price swings associated with changes in the rate of advance in semiconductor technology? We show that the price swings are statistically significant and that they reflect changes in both price-cost markups and cost trends. Further analysis indicates that the shift to faster cost declines in the mid-1990s likely corresponded to a speed-up in the pace of advance in semiconductor technology. However, the slower cost declines since 2001 appear not to have been mirrored by a deceleration in technology. Consequently, researchers should be cautious about associating price or cost movements for semiconductors with changes in the pace of underlying technology even over moderately long periods.Business Economics (2008) 43, 23–39; doi:10.2145/20080303

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D Oliner & Daniel E Sichel, 2008. "Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 23-39, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:43:y:2008:i:3:p:23-39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Ana Aizcorbe & Samuel Kortum, 2005. "Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(4), pages 603-630, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    2. Cette, G. & Clerc, C. & Bresson, L., 2015. "Diffusion et contribution à la croissance des TIC aux États-Unis, dans la zone euro et au Royaume-Uni," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 200, pages 83-90.
    3. Unni Pillai, 2013. "A Model of Technological Progress in the Microprocessor Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 877-912, December.
    4. Gilbert Cette & Christian Clerc & Lea Bresson, 2015. "Contribution of ICT Diffusion to Labour Productivity Growth: The United States, Canada, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom, 1970-2013," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 28, pages 81-88, Spring.
    5. Gilbert Cette, 2014. "Does ICT Remain a Powerful Engine of Growth," Post-Print hal-01463929, HAL.
    6. Davide Consoli & Francesco Vona & Francesco Rentocchini, 2016. "That was then, this is now: skills and routinization in the 2000s," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 847-866.
    7. repec:bfr:rueban:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    9. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    10. Antipa, P. & Cette, G. & Frey, L. & Lecat, R. & Vigna, O., 2008. "Recent trends in productivity: structural acceleration in the euro area and deceleration in the United States?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 33-50, Spring.
    11. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2015. "How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?," NBER Working Papers 21074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gonzalo Castex & Evgenia Kogan Dechter, 2014. "The Changing Roles of Education and Ability in Wage Determination," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 685-710.
    14. Georg Graevenitz & Stefan Wagner & Dietmar Harhoff, 2013. "Incidence and Growth of Patent Thickets: The Impact of Technological Opportunities and Complexity," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 521-563, September.
    15. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    16. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    17. Hao Tan & John A. Mathews, 2007. "Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries," DRUID Working Papers 07-07, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
    18. Susan Houseman, 2006. "Outsourcing, Offshoring, and Productivity Measurement in Manufacturing," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 06-130, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

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