Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?
Given the slowdown in labour productivity growth in the mid-2000s, some have argued that the boost to labour productivity from IT may have run its course. This article contributes three types of evidence to this debate. First, we show that since 2004 IT has continued to make a significant contribution to U.S. labour productivity growth, though it is no longer providing the boost that it did during the productivity resurgence from 1995 to 2004. Second, we present evidence that semiconductor technology, a key ingredient of the IT revolution, has continued to advance at a rapid pace. Finally, we develop projections of growth in trend labour productivity in the U.S. non-farm business sector. The baseline projection of about 1¾ per cent a year is better than recent history but is still below the long-run average of 2¼ per cent. However, we see a reasonable prospect — particularly given the ongoing advance in semiconductors — that the pace of labour productivity growth could rise back up to the long-run average. While the evidence is far from conclusive, we judge that "No, the IT revolution is not over."
Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): (Spring)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 151 Slater Street, Suite 710, Ottawa, ON K1P 5H3|
Web page: http://www.csls.ca/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.csls.ca Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Gordon, 2010. "Revisiting U. S. Productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future," NBER Working Papers 15834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001.
"Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?,"
NBER Working Papers
8359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 117-165, December.
- Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment," Working Paper Series WP-01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D Oliner & Daniel E Sichel, 2008.
"Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress,"
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 23-39, July.
- Ana M. Aizcorbe & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Shifting trends in semiconductor prices and the pace of technological progress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Pillai, Unni, 2011.
"A model of technological progress in the microprocessor industry,"
31881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Unni Pillai, 2013. "A Model of Technological Progress in the Microprocessor Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 877-912, December.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Benjamin R. Mandel & Marshall B. Reinsdorf & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2013.
"Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariff Changes on the Measurement of US Productivity Growth,"
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy,
American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 59-93, February.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Benjamin R. Mandel & Marshall B. Reinsdorf & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2009. "Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariff Changes on the Measurement of U.S. Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 15592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, September.
- Carol A. Corrado & Charles R. Hulten, 2014.
in: Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress, pages 595-628
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carol Corrado & Jonathan Haskel & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimiliano Iommi, 2012.
"Intangible Capital and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results,"
Economics Program Working Papers
12-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Corrado, Carol & Haskel, Jonathan & Jona-Lasinio, Cecilia & Iommi, Massimiliano, 2012. "Intangible Capital and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results," IZA Discussion Papers 6733, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Haskel, J & Corrado, C & Jona-Lasinio, C & Iommi, M, 2012. "Intangible capital and growth in advanced economies: measurement methods and comparative results," Working Papers 9913, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
- Paul D. Chwelos & Ernst R. Berndt & Iain M. Cockburn, 2004.
"Faster, Smaller, Cheaper: An Hedonic Price Analysis of PDAs,"
NBER Working Papers
10746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- P. D. Chwelos & E. R. Berndt & I. M. Cockburn, 2008. "Faster, smaller, cheaper: an hedonic price analysis of PDAs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2839-2856.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007.
"Explaining a Productive Decade,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 81-152.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "U.S. Productivity Growth: The Slowdown Has Returned After a Temporary Revival," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 13-19, Spring.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009.
"The Second Great Contraction,"
21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973, 01-2013.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
- Martin Neil Baily & James Manyika & Shalabh Gupta, 2013. "U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 3-12, Spring.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000.
"The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Byrne, David M. & Corrado, Carol, 2015. "Prices for Communications Equipment: Rewriting the Record," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 1994. "Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big Is the Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 273-334.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
- Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, 09.
- Adam Copeland, 2013. "Seasonality, consumer heterogeneity and price indexes: the case of prepackaged software," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 47-59, February.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2010. "Revisiting U. S. productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 7991, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David Wasshausen & Brent R. Moulton, 2006. "The Role of Hedonic Methods in Measuring Real GDP in the United States," BEA Papers 0067, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:25:y:2013:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CSLS)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.