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Revisiting U. S. productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future

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  • Gordon, Robert J

Abstract

This paper provides three perspectives on long-run growth rates of labor productivity (LP) and of multi-factor productivity (MFP) for the U. S. economy. It extracts statistical growth trends for labor productivity from quarterly data for the total economy going back to 1952, provides new estimates of MFP growth extending back to 1891, and tackles the problem of forecasting LP and MFP twenty years into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon, Robert J, 2010. "Revisiting U. S. productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 7991, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7991
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    Cited by:

    1. Iwaisako, Tatsuro & Tanaka, Hitoshi, 2017. "Product cycles and growth cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 22-40.
    2. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard, 2014. "Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 10291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    5. Salvatore, Dominick, 2010. "Growth or stagnation after recession for the U.S. and other large advanced economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 637-647, September.
    6. Areendam Chanda & Bibhudutta Panda, 2016. "Productivity Growth In Goods And Services Across The Heterogeneous States Of America," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 1021-1045, April.
    7. Arora, Vipin, 2016. "Aggregate Productivity under an Energy-Based Approach," EconStor Research Reports 126146, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    8. Selgin, George & Beckworth, David & Bahadir, Berrak, 2015. "The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 189-207.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital quality; human capital; labor quality; labour productivity; long-term economic growth; multi-factor productivity; U. S. economic history;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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