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Tracking productivity in real time

Author

Listed:
  • James A. Kahn
  • Robert W. Rich

Abstract

Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2006. "Tracking productivity in real time," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Nov).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2006:i:nov:n:v.12no.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alexander Cline & James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2025. "Is High Productivity Growth Returning?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(01), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    4. Christian Weller & Luke Reidenbach, 2011. "On Uneven Ground," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 5-37.
    5. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    7. James B. Bullard, 2018. "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 60-65, April.

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