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U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Neil Baily
  • James Manyika
  • Shalabh Gupta

Abstract

Recent literature has expressed considerable pessimism about the prospects for both productivity and overall economic growth in the U.S. economy, based either on the idea that the pace of innovation has slowed or on concern that innovation today is hurting job growth. While recognizing the problems facing the economy, this paper offers a more optimistic view of both innovation and future growth, a potential return to the innovation and employment-led growth of the 1990s. Technological opportunities remain strong in advanced manufacturing and the energy revolution will spur new investment, not only in energy extraction, but also in the transportation sector and in energy-intensive manufacturing. Education, health care, infrastructure (construction) and government are large sectors of the economy that have lagged behind in productivity growth historically. This is not because of a lack of opportunities for innovation and change but because of a lack of incentives for change and institutional rigidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Neil Baily & James Manyika & Shalabh Gupta, 2013. "U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 3-12, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:25:y:2013:1
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    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/ipm/25/IPM-25-Baily-Manyika-Gupta.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewis, William W., 2004. "The Power of Productivity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226476766.
    2. Paul Waide & Conrad U. Brunner, 2011. "Energy-Efficiency Policy Opportunities for Electric Motor-Driven Systems," IEA Energy Papers 2011/7, OECD Publishing.
    3. Ricardo de Avillez, 2012. "Sectoral Contributions to Labour Productivity Growth: Does the Choice of Decomposition Formula Matter?," CSLS Research Reports 2012-09, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Bernanke: Economic Prospects for the Long Run
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2013-05-18 15:14:38
    2. Economic Prospects for the Long Run
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2013-05-19 15:00:47

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    2. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2018. "How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 679-702, September.
    3. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    4. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    5. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    6. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Samuels, Jon D., 2016. "The impact of information technology on postwar US economic growth," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 398-411.
    7. Castiglione, Concetta & Infante, Davide, 2014. "ICTs and time-span in technical efficiency gains. A stochastic frontier approach over a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 55-65.
    8. Ursel Baumann & Melina Vasardani, 2016. "The slowdown in US productivity growth - what explains it and will it persist?," Working Papers 215, Bank of Greece.
    9. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2017. "Recent US Manufacturing Employment: The Exception that Proves the Rule," Working Paper Series WP17-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Cette, G., 2014. "Does ICT remain a powerful engine of growth?," Working papers 476, Banque de France.
    11. Castiglione, Concetta & Infante, Davide, 2012. "ICTs and lags in technical efficiency gains. A stochastic frontier approach over a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," MPRA Paper 51071, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    13. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gilbert CETTE, 2015. "Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 65-83, 4th quart.
    15. Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Ms. Lusine Lusinyan, 2015. "U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States," IMF Working Papers 2015/116, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Jon D. Samuels, 2017. "Educational Attainment and the Revival of US Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 23-60, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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