IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1879.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában
[The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]

Author

Listed:
  • Szunomár, Ágnes

Abstract

A digitalizáció napjainkra a kínai gazdaság fejlesztésének, modernizációjának kulcsterületévé vált. Jelen írás e kínai "digitális nagy ugrás", azaz a korábbi modernizációs pálya radikális átalakításának esélyeit elemzi. Az irodalom szisztematikus áttekintése alapján a szerző összegyűjti, bemutatja és elemezi azon mutatókat, amelyek számszerűsítik Kína előrehaladását az új fejlesztési pályára való áttérés során, kitérve a hagyományos mérési megközelítések hiányosságaira is. Az elemzés megállapítja, hogy számos, a nemzetközi összehasonlításban rendszeresen használt mutató valóban megerősíti a kínai modernizációs stratégiaváltás eredményeit, s alátámasztja azt az optimista forgatókönyvet, amely szerint Kína magas jövedelmű státusa a közeljövőben elérhetővé válik. Ugyanakkor szükséges néhány nehezen számszerűsíthető, általános és minőségi feltételekkel körülhatárolható tényezőt is figyelembe venni. Ez utóbbi tényezőcsoport szorosabb kapcsolatot mutat az egyes országok fejlettségi szintjével, valamint a közepes jövedelmű országok fejlődési lehetőségeivel. E sajátosságok tekintetében pedig Kínának még hosszú utat kell megtennie, hogy a magas jövedelmű kategóriába kerülhessen.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F63, L16, O14, P20, Q55.

Suggested Citation

  • Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1879
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2019.12.1312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1879
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18414/KSZ.2019.12.1312?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    2. David Bulman & Maya Eden & Ha Nguyen, 2017. "Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 5-28, January.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital and Technology: An Expanded Framework," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 11-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kyoji Fukao & Tsutomu Miyagawa & Kentaro Mukai & Yukio Shinoda & Konomi Tonogi, 2009. "Intangible Investment In Japan: Measurement And Contribution To Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 717-736, September.
    6. repec:eab:develo:23424 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Li, Xing & Hou, Keqiang, 2019. "R&D based knowledge capital and future firm growth: Evidence from China’s Growth Enterprise Market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 287-298.
    8. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    9. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Martin Neil Baily & James Manyika & Shalabh Gupta, 2013. "U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 3-12, Spring.
    11. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number corr05-1.
    12. Tatiana Didier & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Lei Sandy Ye1, 2015. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 101741, The World Bank.
    13. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 2," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 307, Asian Development Bank.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap," NBER Working Papers 18673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    16. Szerb, László & Komlósi, Éva & Ács J., Zoltán & Ortega-Argilés, Raquel, 2014. "A vállalkozási tevékenység regionális különbségei Magyarországon a regionális vállalkozási és fejlődési index alapján [Regional differences in entrepreneurship in Hungary, based on the regional ent," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 233-261.
    17. Xianchun Xu, 2019. "The Slowdown of China's Economic Growth in Terms of Statistics," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 14(1), pages 72-79, March.
    18. Jaana Remes, Jan Mischke and Mekala Krishnan, 2018. "Solving the Productivity Puzzle: The Role of Demand and the Promise of Digitization," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 34, pages 28-51, Fall.
    19. Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, April.
    20. Tho, Tran Van, 2013. "The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations," ADBI Working Papers 421, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    21. Jesus Felipe & Arnelyn Abdon & Utsav Kumar, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_715, Levy Economics Institute.
    22. Pekka Ilmakunnas & Hannu Piekkola, 2014. "Intangible investment in people and productivity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 443-456, June.
    23. Gilles Dufrénot & Meryem Rhouzlane, 2018. "Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century," Working Papers halshs-01821669, HAL.
    24. Yusuf , Shahid & Nabeshima, Kaoru, 2009. "Can Malaysia escape the middle-income Trap ? a strategy for Penang," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4971, The World Bank.
    25. Chenery, Hollis & Taylor, Lance, 1968. "Development Patterns: Among Countries And Over Time," Center for International Affairs (CIA) Archive 294545, Harvard University, Center for International Affairs.
    26. W. W. Rostow, 1959. "The Stages Of Economic Growth," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, August.
    27. László Szerb & Ruta Aidis & Zoltán J. Ács, 2012. "Entrepreneurship in Hungary in 2006-2010 based on the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index (GEDI) methodology," Proceedings- 10th International Conference on Mangement, Enterprise and Benchmarking (MEB 2012),, Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
    28. Guoqiang Tian, 2019. "Deceleration of China's Economic Growth: Causes and Countermeasures," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 14(1), pages 3-25, March.
    29. Jason Dedrick & Kenneth L. Kraemer & Greg Linden, 2010. "Who profits from innovation in global value chains? A study of the iPod and notebook PCs," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(1), pages 81-116, February.
    30. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Gone with the Headwinds: Global Productivity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2017/004, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Homi Kharas & Harinder Kohli, 2011. "What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided?," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 281-289, September.
    32. Hong, Jin & Feng, Bing & Wu, Yanrui & Wang, Liangbing, 2016. "Do government grants promote innovation efficiency in China's high-tech industries?," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 57, pages 4-13.
    33. Shenglang Yang & Yixiao Zhou & Ligang Song, 2018. "Determinants of Intangible Investment and Its Impacts on Firms' Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Private Manufacturing Firms," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 26(6), pages 1-26, November.
    34. Gustavo Adler & Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Ksenia Koloskova & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Gone with the Headwinds; Global Productivity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 17/04, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Hong Cheng & Ruixue Jia & Dandan Li & Hongbin Li, 2019. "The Rise of Robots in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 71-88, Spring.
    36. Charles R. Hulten & Janet X. Hao, 2012. "The Role Of Intangible Capital in the Transformation and Growth of the Chinese Economy," NBER Working Papers 18405, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts: A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Howell, Anthony, 2017. "Picking ‘winners' in China: Do subsidies matter for indigenous innovation and firm productivity?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 154-165.
    39. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 1," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 306, Asian Development Bank.
    40. repec:eab:tradew:23424 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Szalavetz, Andrea, 2011. "Innovációvezérelt növekedés? [Innovation-driven growth?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 460-476.
    42. Albert G.Z. Hu & Deng Yongxu, 2019. "Does government R&D stimulate or crowd out firm R&D spending? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing industries," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 497-518, February.
    43. Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060," OECD Economic Policy Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
    44. repec:eab:macroe:23424 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Robert J. Gordon, 2014. "The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections," NBER Working Papers 19895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts; A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 16/02, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    2. Gill,Indermit S. & Kharas,Homi, 2015. "The middle-income trap turns ten," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7403, The World Bank.
    3. John M. Luiz, 2016. "The Political Economy of Middle-Income Traps: Is South Africa in a Long-Run Growth Trap? The Path to “Bounded Populism”," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 3-19, March.
    4. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    5. Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Mohseni Cheraghlou, Amin & Sa'adat, Hossein, 2018. "Avoiding Middle-income Trap in Muslim Majority Countries: The Effect of Total Factor Productivity, Human Capital, and Age Dependency Ratio," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 5-21.
    6. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2015. "The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 2015/131, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Richard Harrison & William Scheela & P. C. Lai & Sivapalan Vivekarajah, 2018. "Beyond institutional voids and the middle-income trap: The emerging business angel market in Malaysia," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 965-991, December.
    8. World Bank, 2015. "Peru Building on Success," World Bank Publications - Reports 22984, The World Bank Group.
    9. Tan Khee Giap & Sasidaran Gopalan & Nursyahida Ahmad, 2018. "Growth Slowdown Analysis for Indonesia’s Subnational Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-36, September.
    10. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B., 2021. "Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach," MPRA Paper 109372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Rigg, Jonathan & Promphaking, Buapun & Le Mare, Ann, 2014. "Personalizing the Middle-Income Trap: An Inter-Generational Migrant View from Rural Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 184-198.
    12. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.
    13. Felix Roth, 2022. "The Productivity Puzzle: A Critical Assessment and an Outlook on the COVID-19 Crisis," Contributions to Economics, in: Intangible Capital and Growth, chapter 0, pages 1-16, Springer.
    14. Pinheiro, Flávio L. & Hartmann, Dominik & Boschma, Ron & Hidalgo, César A., 2022. "The time and frequency of unrelated diversification," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    15. Alfonso Arellano & Olga Gouveia & Sebastian Nieto-Parra & Jose Rene Orozco & Rebeca Peers, 2018. "Policy priorities to promote financial development in the context of Middle Income Trap," Working Papers 18/15, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Işık Özel, 2016. "From a ‘Rising Star’ to Fragile Market Trapped in Middle-Income: An Overview of the Turkish Economy," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(02), pages 05-11, August.
    17. Umit BULUT & Ahsen Seda BULUT, 2015. "The Role of Schooling in Struggling with the Middle-Income Trap: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 205-215, December.
    18. Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem & Sancar, Canan, 2021. "The impact of export dynamics on trade balance in emerging and developed countries: An evaluation with middle income trap perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-375.
    19. Li, Qing & Vo, Long Hai & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Intangible capital distribution in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 1-1.
    20. Shahid Yusuf, 2017. "Middle-income countries: trapped or merely slowing?," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(2), pages 19-29, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1879. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.