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The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

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  • Tran Van Tho

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

The problem faced by many of the economies making up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is whether they can avoid the middle-income trap and advance to the high-income level. What is needed for them to avoid the middle-income trap? This paper attempts to answer this question by building an analytical framework based on the factors that determine each development stage of an economy, and by comparing the current situation of four ASEAN middle-income countries with the experience of the Republic of Korea, a country that managed to overcome the middle-income trap and reach the high-income level in the late 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Tran Van Tho, 2013. "The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations," ADBI Working Papers 421, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0421
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    File URL: http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.05.16.wp421.middle.income.trap.issues.asean.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coxhead, Ian, 2007. "A New Resource Curse? Impacts of China's Boom on Comparative Advantage and Resource Dependence in Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1099-1119, July.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2007. "Introductiion to One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth," Introductory Chapters, in: One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth, Princeton University Press.
    3. Homi Kharas & Indermit Gill, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798, April.
    4. Shahid Yusuf, 2003. "Innovative East Asia : The Future of Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15158, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Viet Nguyen, Thanh & Simioni, Michel & Le Van, Dao, 2019. "Assessment of TFP change at provincial level in Vietnam: New evidence using Färe–Primont productivity index," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 329-345.
    2. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2015. "The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 2015/131, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    5. Semih Gökatalay, 2015. "Political Economy of Middle-Income Trap Concept," EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey 275, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    6. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2019. "The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy," IMF Working Papers 2019/074, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jungsuk Kim & Jungsoo Park, 2018. "The Role of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Middle-Income Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1264-1284, May.
    8. Shahid Yusuf, 2018. "East Asian Cat or African Cat: Which One Is the Better Mouse Catcher?," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 10(1-3), pages 60-72, January.
    9. Umit BULUT & Ahsen Seda BULUT, 2015. "The Role of Schooling in Struggling with the Middle-Income Trap: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 205-215, December.
    10. Ajai Chopra, 2015. "Financing Productivity- and Innovation-Led Growth in Developing Asia: International Lessons and Policy Issues," Working Paper Series WP15-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Mohseni Cheraghlou, Amin & Sa'adat, Hossein, 2018. "Avoiding Middle-income Trap in Muslim Majority Countries: The Effect of Total Factor Productivity, Human Capital, and Age Dependency Ratio," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 5-21.
    12. Gill,Indermit S. & Kharas,Homi, 2015. "The middle-income trap turns ten," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7403, The World Bank.
    13. Berger, Axel & Bruhn, Dominique & Bender, Andrea & Friesen, Julia & Kick, Katharina & Kullmann, Felix & Roßner, Robert & Weyrauch, Svenja, 2016. "Deep preferential trade agreements and upgrading in global value chains: the case of Vietnam," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 92, number 92, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asean; middle-income trap; republic of korea; viet nam; indonesia; malaysia; philippines; thailand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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