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China in the Middle-Income Trap?

Listed author(s):
  • Glawe, Linda
  • Wagner, Helmut

Over the last decade, a growing body of literature dealing with the phenomenon of the “middle-income trap” (MIT) has emerged. The term MIT usually refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth and thus reached the status of a middle-income country (MIC) in a considerably short amount of time, but have not been able to further catch up to the group of high-income economies. Especially, since the beginning growth slowdown of the Chinese economy in 2011, there has been rising concern that China is or will also be confronted with such a trap. This paper analyzes the Chinese MIT situation taking into account both the (absolute and relative) empirical MIT definitions and MIT triggering factors identified in the literature. We not only survey the recent literature, but also make our own MIT forecasts and analyze under which conditions China could be caught in an MIT.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 73336.

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Date of creation: 26 Aug 2016
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73336
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