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When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China

  • Barry Eichengreen

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley)

  • Donghyun Park

    ()

    (Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila, Philippines)

  • Kwanho Shin

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Korea University)

Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around US$ 17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates. © 2012 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 11 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 42-87

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:11:y:2012:i:1:p:42-87
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  1. Loren Brandt & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Yifan Zhang, 2009. "Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction? Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 15152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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