When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China
Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around US$ 17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates. © 2012 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Volume (Year): 11 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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