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When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley)

  • Donghyun Park

    (Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila, Philippines)

  • Kwanho Shin

    (Department of Economics, Korea University)

Abstract

Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around US$ 17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates. © 2012 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:11:y:2012:i:1:p:42-87
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    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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