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Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China

Author

Listed:
  • Guanghua Wan
  • Peter J. Morgan
  • Robert J. Barro

Abstract

From the perspective of conditional convergence, China's GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8 percent per year to a range of 3–4 percent. China can be viewed as a middle-income convergence success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand and Uruguay. Upper-income convergence successes (toward which China is likely heading) include Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

Suggested Citation

  • Guanghua Wan & Peter J. Morgan & Robert J. Barro, 2016. "Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(5), pages 5-19, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:24:y:2016:i:5:p:5-19
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/cwe.12172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    2. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2006. "The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and … Convergence, Period," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 351-397.
    3. De Long, J Bradford, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1138-1154, December.
    4. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 2015. "Convergence and Modernisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 911-942, June.
    6. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    7. Quah, Danny, 1993. " Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 427-443, December.
    8. Bulman, David & Eden, Maya & Nguyen, Ha, 2014. "Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth : is there a middle income trap ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7104, The World Bank.
    9. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    10. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guanghua Wan & Peter J. Morgan & Justin Yifu Lin & Guanghua Wan & Peter J. Morgan, 2016. "Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium-term to Long-term Growth in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(5), pages 20-41, September.
    2. Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo, 2017. "The effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-22.
    3. repec:taf:jocebs:v:15:y:2017:i:3:p:269-287 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sutirtha Roy & Martin Kessler & Arvind Subramanian, 2016. "Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap," Working Papers id:11404, eSocialSciences.

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