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Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap

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  • Aiyar, Shekhar
  • Duval, Romain
  • Puy, Damien
  • Wu, Yiqun
  • Zhang, Longmei

Abstract

In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns. We identify slowdowns as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:22-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2018.07.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Slowdown; Middle income trap; Bayesian model averaging; Probit regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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