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Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues

  • Giuseppe De Luca

    ()

    (ISFOL)

  • Jan R. Magnus

    ()

    (Tilburg University)

In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Pru ̈fer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Special emphasis is given to several practical issues that users are likely to face in applied work: equivariance to certain transformations of the explanatory variables, stability, accuracy, computing speed, and out-of-memory problems. Performances of our bma and wals commands are illustrated using simulated data and empirical applications from the literature on model-averaging estimation. Copyright 2011 by StataCorp LP.

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Article provided by StataCorp LP in its journal Stata Journal.

Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 518-544

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Handle: RePEc:tsj:stataj:v:11:y:2011:i:4:p:518-544
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  1. Dmitry Danilov, 2005. "Estimation of the mean of a univariate normal distribution when the variance is not known," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 277-291, December.
  2. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2006. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4063, The World Bank.
  3. Dardanoni, Valentino & Modica, Salvatore & Peracchi, Franco, 2011. "Regression with imputed covariates: A generalized missing-indicator approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 362-368, June.
  4. Magnus, Jan R. & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2011. "Weighted average least squares estimation with nonspherical disturbances and an application to the Hong Kong housing market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 1331-1341, March.
  5. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  6. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  7. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
  8. Jan R. Magnus & J. Durbin, 1999. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients of Interest When Other Regression Coefficients Are of No Interest," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 639-644, May.
  9. Valentino Dardanoni & Salvatore Modica & Franco Peracchi, 2011. "Regression with imputed covariates: A generalized missing-indicator approach," Post-Print hal-00815561, HAL.
  10. Valentino Dardanoni & Giuseppe De Luca & Salvatore Modica & Franco Peracchi, 2012. "A generalized missing-indicator approach to regression with imputed covariates," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(4), pages 575-604, December.
  11. Valentino Dardanoni & Salvatore Modica & Franco Peracchi, 2011. "Regression with imputed covariates: A generalized missing-indicator approach," Post-Print peer-00815561, HAL.
  12. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.
  13. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Magnus, J.R. & Kumar, K., 2011. "On the Choice of Prior in Bayesian Model Averaging," Discussion Paper 2011-003, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. repec:dgr:kubcen:2011003 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Jan R. Magnus, 2002. "Estimation of the mean of a univariate normal distribution with known variance," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 225-236, June.
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