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Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging

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  • Winford H. Masanjala

    (Department of Economics, University of Malawi, and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA)

  • Chris Papageorgiou

    (Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA)

Abstract

This paper takes a fresh look at Africa's growth experience by using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methodology. BMA enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which of these variable can effectively explain Africa's growth experience. Posterior coefficient estimates reveal that key engines of growth in Africa are substantially different from those in the rest of the world. More precisely, it is shown that mining, primary exports and initial primary education exerted differential effect on African growth. These results are examined in relation to the existing literature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:5:p:671-682
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.1020
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.5/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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