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On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression

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  • Ley, Eduardo
  • Steel, Mark F.J.

Abstract

We consider the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. We examine the effect of a variety of prior assumptions on the inference concerning model size, posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and on predictive performance. We illustrate these issues in the context of cross-country growth regressions using three datasets with 41 to 67 potential drivers of growth and 72 to 93 observations. Finally, we recommend priors for use in this and related contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2008. "On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression," MPRA Paper 6773, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2012. "Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian model averaging with economic applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 251-266.
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 44-67, January.
    4. Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Does trust promote growth?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 777-788.
    5. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-246, October.
    6. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dieppe, Alistair & Chudik, Alexander, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 995, European Central Bank.
    7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Do determinants of FDI to developing countries differ among OECD investors? Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging," FIW Working Paper series 076, FIW.
    8. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
    9. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2010. "Natural Disasters and Human Capital Accumulation," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(2), pages 280-302, July.
    10. Gary Koop & Lise Tole, 2013. "Forecasting the European carbon market," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 723-741, June.
    11. Deckers, Thomas & Hanck, Christoph, 2009. "Multiple Testing Techniques in Growth Econometrics," MPRA Paper 17843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    13. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Horvath, Roman & Rusnak, Marek & Smidkova, Katerina & Zapal, Jan, 2011. "Dissent voting behavior of central bankers: what do we really know?," MPRA Paper 34638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Model Averaging in Economics," Working Papers wp2010_1008, CEMFI.
    16. Henderson, Daniel J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2008. "Are any growth theories linear? Why we should care about what the evidence tells us," MPRA Paper 8767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty And The Speed Of Income Convergence In Europe," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 720-741, June.
    18. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty And The Speed Of Income Convergence In Europe," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 720-741, June.
    19. Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
    20. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America : The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    21. Alin T Mirestean & Charalambos G Tsangarides & Huigang Chen, 2009. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods," IMF Working Papers 09/74, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Andreas Sachs, 2012. "What really drives unemployment? A bayesian approach to determine the impact of institutions on the unemployment rate," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 1008-1019.
    23. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    24. Huigang Chen & Alin T Mirestean & Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2011. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model," IMF Working Papers 11/230, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model size; Model uncertainty; Posterior odds; Prediction; Prior odds; Robustness;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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