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Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?

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  • Bruns, Stephan B.
  • Ioannidis, John P.A.

Abstract

Almost all studies that use Bayesian model averaging to identify robust growth determinants focus on the growth period between 1960 and the 1990s. We apply Bayesian Model Averaging to a rolling time window of 20 and 35 years using a newly compiled dataset with 37 growth determinants for the years 1960 to 2010. Our findings indicate instabilities in the inferences on growth determinants across growth periods. In line with prior research, we find support for robust ambiguity in early growth periods, that is, cross-country growth regressions provide little support for some growth determinants being more important than others. However, determinants related to demography, education, trade, investment and to some extent religion seem to matter in the subsequent growth periods with education and demography being most important in recent growth periods.

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  • Bruns, Stephan B. & Ioannidis, John P.A., 2020. "Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:63:y:2020:i:c:s0164070419300503
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103185
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian model averaging; Growth regressions; Model uncertainty; Heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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