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Robust Growth Determinants

  • Gernot Doppelhofer
  • Melvyn Weeks

This paper investigates the robustness of determinants of economic growth in the presence of model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and parsimonious mixture modeling that allows for fat-tailed errors compared to the normal benchmark case. Applying robust model averaging to growth determinants, the paper finds that eight out of eighteen variables found to be significantly related to economic growth by Sala-i-Martin et al. (2004) are sensitive to deviations from benchmark model averaging. For example, the GDP shares of mining or government consumption, are no longer robust or economically significant once deviations from the normal benchmark assumptions are allowed. The paper identifies outlying observations - most notably Botswana - in explaining economic growth in a cross-section of countries.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-02/cesifo1_wp3354.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3354.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3354
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  1. Ciccone, Antonio & Jarociński, Marek, 2008. "Determinants of economic growth: will data tell?," Working Paper Series 0852, European Central Bank.
  2. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  3. Klein, Roger W & Brown, Stephen J, 1984. "Model Selection When There Is "Minimal" Prior Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1291-1312, September.
  4. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2008. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," Working Papers 2008-26, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  5. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  6. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec..
  7. Carmen Fernandez & Mark F J Steel, 1999. "Bayesian Regression Analysis with scale mixtures of normals," ESE Discussion Papers 27, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  8. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2005. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 571-595, October.
  9. Zaman, Asad & Rousseeuw, Peter J. & Orhan, Mehmet, 2001. "Econometric applications of high-breakdown robust regression techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-8, April.
  10. Leamer, Edward E & Leonard, Herman B, 1983. "Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 306-17, May.
  11. Canova, Fabio, 2001. "Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita : a predictive density approach," HWWA Discussion Papers 139, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  12. T. Paul Schultz, 1999. "Health and Schooling Investments in Africa," Working Papers 801, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  13. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Identifying and Interpreting Regional Convergence Clusters across Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C133-C160, 03.
  14. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  15. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  16. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
  17. Leamer, Edward E, 1982. "Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 725-36, May.
  18. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Price Indexes, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 5-34, March.
  19. T. Paul Schultz, 1999. "Health and Schooling Investments in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
  20. Olivier Parent & James P. Lesage, 2007. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models ," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2007-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  21. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  22. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2007. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 1978, CESifo Group Munich.
  23. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Papageorgiou, Chris, 2007. "Editorial Introduction - Special issue "On the Empirics of Growth Nonlinearities"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages iii-iv, September.
  25. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
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