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Robust Growth Determinants

  • Gernot Doppelhofer
  • Melvyn Weeks

This paper investigates the robustness of determinants of economic growth in the presence of model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and parsimonious mixture modeling that allows for fat-tailed errors compared to the normal benchmark case. Applying robust model averaging to growth determinants, the paper finds that eight out of eighteen variables found to be significantly related to economic growth by Sala-i-Martin et al. (2004) are sensitive to deviations from benchmark model averaging. For example, the GDP shares of mining or government consumption, are no longer robust or economically significant once deviations from the normal benchmark assumptions are allowed. The paper identifies outlying observations - most notably Botswana - in explaining economic growth in a cross-section of countries.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-02/cesifo1_wp3354.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3354.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3354
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  1. Marek Jarocinski & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," Working Papers 2009-36, FEDEA.
  2. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  3. Fabio Canova, 1997. "Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach," Economics Working Papers 404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
  4. Klein, Roger W & Brown, Stephen J, 1984. "Model Selection When There Is "Minimal" Prior Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1291-1312, September.
  5. T. Paul Schultz, 1999. "Health and Schooling Investments in Africa," Working Papers 801, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  6. Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  7. Zaman, Asad & Rousseeuw, Peter J. & Orhan, Mehmet, 2001. "Econometric applications of high-breakdown robust regression techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-8, April.
  8. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Durlauf, S.N. & Johnson, P.A., 1994. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behavior," Working papers 9419, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
  11. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  12. Leamer, Edward E & Leonard, Herman B, 1983. "Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 306-17, May.
  13. James G. MacKinnon & Halbert White, 1983. "Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties," Working Papers 537, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  14. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
  16. Carmen Fernandez & Mark F. J. Steel, 2004. "Bayesian Regression Analysis with scale mixtures of normals," ESE Discussion Papers 27, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  17. Olivier Parent & James P. Lesage, 2007. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models ," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2007-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  18. Jes�s Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 44-67, January.
  19. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Identifying and Interpreting Regional Convergence Clusters across Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C133-C160, 03.
  20. T. Paul Schultz, 1999. "Health and Schooling Investments in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
  21. Leamer, Edward E, 1982. "Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 725-36, May.
  22. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Price Indexes, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 5-34, March.
  23. Papageorgiou, Chris, 2007. "Editorial Introduction - Special issue "On the Empirics of Growth Nonlinearities"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages iii-iv, September.
  24. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
  25. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
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