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Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty

Author

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  • Doris A. Oberdabernig
  • Stefan Humer
  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

Abstract

We analyse the nature of robust determinants of differences in democracy levels across countries taking explicitly into account uncertainty in the choice of covariates and spatial spillovers. We make use of recent developments in Bayesian model averaging to assess the effect of a large number of potential factors affecting democratisation processes and account for several specifications of spatial linkages. Our results indicate that spatial spillovers are present in the data even after controlling for a large number of geographical covariates. Addressing the determinants of democracy without modelling such spillovers may lead to flawed inference about the nature of the determinants of democratisation processes. In particular, our results emphasise the role played by Muslim religion, population size, trade volumes, English language, natural resource rents, GDP per capita, being a MENA country and the incidence of armed conflicts as factors affecting democracy robustly.

Suggested Citation

  • Doris A. Oberdabernig & Stefan Humer & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2018. "Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 154-185, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:65:y:2018:i:2:p:154-185
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 2009. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression This article was published online on 30 March 2009. An error was subsequently identified. This not," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 651-674.
    5. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008. "Income and Democracy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-842, June.
    7. Peter T. Leeson & Andrea M. Dean, 2009. "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 533-551, July.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    9. Clague, Christopher & Gleason, Suzanne & Knack, Stephen, 2001. "Determinants of lasting democracy in poor countries," MPRA Paper 28048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfer, Sascha & Koplenig, Alexander, 2024. "Leakage explains the apparent superiority of Bayesian random effect models – a preregistered comment on Claessens, Kyritsis and Atkinson (2023)," OSF Preprints ex267, Center for Open Science.
    2. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    3. Bo Sui & Chun-Ping Chang & Yin Chu, 2021. "Political Stability: an Impetus for Spatial Environmental Spillovers," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(2), pages 387-415, June.
    4. Sajad Rahimian, 2021. "The Determinants of Democracy Revisited: An Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Papers 2103.04255, arXiv.org.
    5. repec:osf:osfxxx:ex267_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sajad Rahimian, 2021. "Corruption Determinants, Geography, and Model Uncertainty," Papers 2105.12878, arXiv.org.

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