Extreme Bounds of Democracy
What determines the emergence and survival of democracy? The authors apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of fifty-nine factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over three million regressions with data from 165 countries from 1976 to 2002. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are gross domestic product (GDP) growth (a negative effect), past transitions (a positive effect), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development membership (a positive effect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil-producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barro, Robert J., 1999.
"Determinants of Democracy,"
3451297, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2010.
"Islam and Democracy,"
Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz
2010-10, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Ward, Michael D., 2006. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(04), pages 911-933, October.
- World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8151, March.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2010.
"Oil and the Duration of Dictatorships,"
Monash Economics Working Papers
10-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, . "Oil and the duration of dictatorships," Working Papers 2008-24, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Oberhofer, Harald & Raschky, Paul, 2010. "Oil and the duration of dictatorships," Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2010-3, University of Salzburg.
- Edward E. Leamer, 2010. "Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 31-46, Spring.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
NBER Working Papers
11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clague, Christopher & Gleason, Suzanne & Knack, Stephen, 2001. "Determinants of lasting democracy in poor countries," MPRA Paper 28048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jess Benhabib & Alejandro Corvalan & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011.
"Reestablishing the income-democracy nexus,"
Working Paper Series
2011-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008.
"A Theory of Military Dictatorships,"
NBER Working Papers
13915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 74, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," IZA Discussion Papers 3392, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A theory of military dictatorships," POLIS Working Papers 100, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Papers 03-10-2008a, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
- Jan Fidrmuc, 2001.
"Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth During Post-Communist Transition,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
372, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth during Post-Communist Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olsson, Ola, 2009. "On the democratic legacy of colonialism," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 534-551, December.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I just ran four million regressions,"
Economics Working Papers
201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Borooah, Vani K. & Paldam, Martin, 2007.
"Why is the world short of democracy?: A cross-country analysis of barriers to representative government,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 582-604, September.
- Vani K. Borooah & Martin Paldam, 2006. "Why is the World Short of Democracy? A Cross-Country Ananlysis of Barriers to Representative Government," ICER Working Papers 28-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Pevehouse, Jon C., 2002. "Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(03), pages 515-549, June.
- Michael L. Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Are Political Freedoms Converging?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 323-340, April.
- B. Peter Rosendorff, 2001. "Choosing Democracy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-29, 03.
- Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2011.
"Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database,"
2011-25, CEPII research center.
- Micahael Tomz & Gary King & Langche Zeng, . "ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(i02).
- Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsg�Rd & Tarik M. Yousef, 2009. "The Logic Of Authoritarian Bargains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 93-125, 03.
- Adam Przeworski, 2005. "Democracy as an equilibrium," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 253-273, June.
- Axel Dreher, 2006.
"Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
- Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization," TWI Research Paper Series 6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:57:y:2013:i:2:p:171-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.