IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/intorg/v68y2014i03p561-597_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century

Author

Listed:
  • Gunitsky, Seva

Abstract

What causes democratic waves? This article puts forward a theory of institutional waves that focuses on the effects of systemic transformations. It argues that abrupt shifts in the distribution of power among leading states create unique and powerful incentives for sweeping domestic reforms. A variety of statistical tests reveals strong support for the idea that shifts in hegemonic power have shaped waves of democracy, fascism, and communism in the twentieth century, independent of domestic factors or horizontal diffusion. These “hegemonic shocks” produce windows of opportunity for external regime imposition, enable rising powers to rapidly expand networks of trade and patronage, and inspire imitators by credibly revealing hidden information about relative regime effectiveness to foreign audiences. I outline these mechanisms of coercion, influence, and emulation that connect shocks to waves, empirically test their relationship, and illustrate the theory with two case studies—the wave of democratic transitions after World War I, and the fascist wave of the late interwar period. In sum, democracy in the twentieth century cannot be fully understood without examining the effects of hegemonic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunitsky, Seva, 2014. "From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 561-597, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:68:y:2014:i:03:p:561-597_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818314000113/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Wright, 2009. "How Foreign Aid Can Foster Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 552-571, July.
    2. Peter T. Leeson & Andrea M. Dean, 2009. "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 533-551, July.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    4. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521793797, Enero-Abr.
    5. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790321, Enero-Abr.
    6. Simmons, Beth A. & Dobbin, Frank & Garrett, Geoffrey, 2006. "Introduction: The International Diffusion of Liberalism," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 781-810, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Owen, John M., 2016. "Global power shifts and the future of democracy: An evolutionary approach, with special attention to China," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Global Governance SP IV 2016-108, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    2. Yoshiki Yamagata & Jue Yang & Joseph Galaskiewicz, 2017. "State power and diffusion processes in the ratification of global environmental treaties, 1981–2008," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 501-529, August.
    3. Houle, Christian & Kayser, Mark A. & Xiang, Jun, 2016. "Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 687-726, October.
    4. Christian Houle & Mark A. Kayser, 2019. "The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(10), pages 2421-2437, November.
    5. Pavel S. Pronin, 2020. "International Trade And Democracy: How Trade Partners Affect Regime Change And Persistence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 75/PS/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Dawn Brancati & Adrián Lucardi, 2019. "Why Democracy Protests Do Not Diffuse," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(10), pages 2354-2389, November.
    7. Lee, Alexander & Paine, Jack, 2019. "British colonialism and democracy: Divergent inheritances and diminishing legacies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 487-503.
    8. Gary Uzonyi & Nam Kyu Kim & Nakissa Jahanbani & Victor Asal, 2021. "Genocide, Politicide, and the Prospects of Democratization since 1900," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(9), pages 1521-1550, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aidt, T.S. & Jensen, P.S., 2012. "From Open to Secret Ballot: Vote Buying and Modernization," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1221, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Leonid Krasnozhon, 2013. "Institutional stickiness of democracy in post-communist states: Can prevailing culture explain it?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 221-237, June.
    3. Pettersson, Jan, 2003. "Democracy, Consolidation and Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 15 Dec 2004.
    4. Campante, Filipe R. & Chor, Davin, 2014. "“The people want the fall of the regime”: Schooling, political protest, and the economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 495-517.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    6. Kangoye, Thierry, 2011. "Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?," WIDER Working Paper Series 064, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Simone Dietrich & Joseph Wright, 2012. "Foreign Aid and Democratic Development in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-020, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 5555, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    10. John C. Anyanwu, 2014. "Oil Wealth, Ethno‐Religious‐Linguistic Fractionalization and Civil Wars in Africa: Cross‐Country Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 209-236, June.
    11. Konstantin Yanovskiy & Sergey Shulgin, 2013. "Institutions, democracy and growth in the very long run," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 63(4), pages 493-510, December.
    12. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2018. "The Nexus Between Democracy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Dynamic Simultaneous-Equations Models," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(3), pages 980-998, September.
    13. Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Hodler, Roland, 2010. "Natural resources, democracy and corruption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 608-621, May.
    14. Richard Bluhm & Adam Szirmai, 2011. "Institutions, Inequality and Growth: A review of theory and evidence on the institutional determinants of growth and inequality," Papers inwopa634, Innocenti Working Papers.
    15. Justin Yifu Lin, 2007. "Development and Transition : Idea, Strategy, and Viability," Development Economics Working Papers 22709, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. Castelló-Climent, Amparo, 2008. "On the distribution of education and democracy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 179-190, October.
    17. Alberto Batinti & Joan Costa‐Font & Timothy J. Hatton, 2022. "Voting Up? The Effects of Democracy and Franchise Extension on Human Stature," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 161-190, January.
    18. Thierry Kangoye, 2011. "Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-064, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Ivar Kolstad & Arne Wiig, 2014. "Diversification and democracy," CMI Working Papers 9, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
    20. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2013. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(2), pages 171-197, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:68:y:2014:i:03:p:561-597_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/ino .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.