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The People Want the Fall of the Regime": Schooling, Political Protest, and the Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Filipe R. Campante

    (Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University)

  • Davin Chor

    (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)

Abstract

We examine several hypotheses regarding the determinants and implications of political protest, motivated by the wave of popular uprisings in Arab countries starting in late 2010. We draw attention to one of the most fundamental correlates of political activity identi ed in the literature, namely education, and its interaction with economic circumstances. Using a combination of individual-level micro data and cross-country macro data, we highlight how rising levels of education coupled with economic under-performance display a strong link with participation in protest modes of political activity as well as incumbent turnover. Political protests are thus more likely when an increasingly educated populace does not have commensurate economic gains. We also nd that the implied political instability is associated with heightened pressures towards democratization.

Suggested Citation

  • Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "The People Want the Fall of the Regime": Schooling, Political Protest, and the Economy," Working Papers 08-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:08-2012
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    Cited by:

    1. Dario Debowicz & Alex Dickson & Ian A. MacKenzie & Petros G. Sekeris, 2025. "Income and the (eventual) rise of democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 204(3), pages 381-424, September.
    2. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Wu Fengyu & Nugent Jeffrey B., 2018. "Explaining Gender Differences in Socioeconomic and Political Objectives in the Middle East," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Salemi, Colette, 2021. "COVID-19 and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Krieger, Tim & Brockhoff, Sarah & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2012. "Great Expectations and Hard Times The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62083, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    7. El-Mallakh, Nelly & Maurel, Mathilde & Speciale, Biagio, 2018. "Arab spring protests and women's labor market outcomes: Evidence from the Egyptian revolution," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 656-682.
    8. Lu, Yao & Luo, Zhirui, 2025. "Age structure and democratic development: the nonlinear and conditional role of youth bulges," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Rudolf, Robert & Wang, Shun & Wu, Fengyu, 2023. "The Arab Spring, a setback for gender equality? Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Bharati, Tushar & Jetter, Michael & Malik, Muhammad Nauman, 2024. "Types of communications technology and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2024. "The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 24-43, January.
    12. Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
    13. Thomas Bassetti & Raul Caruso & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "The tree of political violence: a GMERT analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 839-850, March.
    14. Binzel, Christine, 2011. "Decline in Social Mobility: Unfulfilled Aspirations among Egypt's Educated Youth," IZA Discussion Papers 6139, IZA Network @ LISER.
    15. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2019. "Social Divisiveness and Conflicts: Grievances Matter!," AMSE Working Papers 1906, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    16. Daniel Aaronson & Mark Borgschulte & Sunny Liu & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2024. "Schooling and Political Activism in the Early Civil Rights Era," Working Paper Series WP 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2015. "Inefficient predation and political transitions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 37-48.
    18. Godfred Bonnah Nkansah, 2022. "Youth Cohort Size, Structural Socioeconomic Conditions, and Youth Protest Behavior in Democratic Societies (1995–2014)," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    19. Stephen L. Parente & Luis Felipe Sáenz & Anna Seim, 2022. "Income, education and democracy," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 193-233, June.
    20. Daniel Treisman, 2011. "Income, Democracy, and the Cunning of Reason," NBER Working Papers 17132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Dagaev, Dmitry & Lamberova, Natalia & Sobolev, Anton, 2019. "Stability of revolutionary governments in the face of mass protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    22. Zahraa Barakat & Ali Fakih, 2021. "Determinants of the Arab Spring Protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya: What Have We Learned?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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