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Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

  • Brückner, Markus
  • Ciccone, Antonio

According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by around 7 percentage points. We also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6691.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6691
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