Extreme Bounds of Democracy
There are many stories of democracy but little consensus over which variables robustly determine its emergence and survival. We apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of 59 factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over 3 million regressions. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are GDP growth (a negative e ect), past transitions (a positive e ect), and OECD membership (a positive e ect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Micahael Tomz & Gary King & Langche Zeng, . "ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(i02).
- Axel Dreher, 2005.
"Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization,"
TWI Research Paper Series
6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
- Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
- Pevehouse, Jon C., 2002. "Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(03), pages 515-549, June.
- Borooah, Vani K. & Paldam, Martin, 2007.
"Why is the world short of democracy?: A cross-country analysis of barriers to representative government,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 582-604, September.
- Vani K. Borooah & Martin Paldam, 2006. "Why is the World Short of Democracy? A Cross-Country Ananlysis of Barriers to Representative Government," ICER Working Papers 28-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003.
"Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
- Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth During Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 372, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth during Post-Communist Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clague, Christopher & Gleason, Suzanne & Knack, Stephen, 2001. "Determinants of lasting democracy in poor countries," MPRA Paper 28048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008.
"A Theory of Military Dictatorships,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3392, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 74, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," NBER Working Papers 13915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A theory of military dictatorships," POLIS Working Papers 100, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Papers 03-10-2008a, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2011.
"Oil and the duration of dictatorships,"
Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 505-530, September.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2010. "Oil and the Duration of Dictatorships," Monash Economics Working Papers 10-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Oberhofer, Harald & Raschky, Paul, 2010. "Oil and the duration of dictatorships," Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2010-3, University of Salzburg.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, . "Oil and the duration of dictatorships," Working Papers 2008-24, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Jess Benhabib & Alejandro Corvalan & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011.
"Reestablishing the Income-Democracy Nexus,"
NBER Working Papers
16832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997.
"I Just Ran Two Million Regressions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
- Robert J. Barro, 1999.
"Determinants of Democracy,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S158-S183, December.
- Michael L. Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Are Political Freedoms Converging?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 323-340, April.
- Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsg�Rd & Tarik M. Yousef, 2009. "The Logic Of Authoritarian Bargains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 93-125, 03.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2012.
"Islam and democracy,"
Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 185-192, April.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2010. "Islam and Democracy," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2010-10, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Islam and democracy," Munich Reprints in Economics 19273, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- B. Peter Rosendorff, 2001. "Choosing Democracy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-29, 03.
- Edward E. Leamer, 2010. "Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 31-46, Spring.
- Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Ward, Michael D., 2006. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(04), pages 911-933, October.
- Adam Przeworski, 2005. "Democracy as an equilibrium," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 253-273, June.
- Olsson, Ola, 2009. "On the democratic legacy of colonialism," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 534-551, December.
- Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8151.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.