Extreme Bounds of Democracy
There are many stories of democracy but little consensus over which variables robustly determine its emergence and survival. We apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of 59 factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over 3 million regressions. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are GDP growth (a negative e ect), past transitions (a positive e ect), and OECD membership (a positive e ect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pevehouse, Jon C., 2002. "Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(03), pages 515-549, June.
- Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008.
"A Theory of Military Dictatorships,"
NBER Working Papers
13915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," IZA Discussion Papers 3392, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A theory of military dictatorships," POLIS Working Papers 100, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 74, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Papers 03-10-2008a, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
- B. Peter Rosendorff, 2001. "Choosing Democracy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-29, 03.
- Michael L. Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Are Political Freedoms Converging?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 323-340, April.
- Clague, Christopher & Gleason, Suzanne & Knack, Stephen, 2001. "Determinants of lasting democracy in poor countries," MPRA Paper 28048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
NBER Working Papers
11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2012.
"Islam and democracy,"
Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 185-192, April.
- Niklas Potrafke, 2010. "Islam and Democracy," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2010-10, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Islam and democracy," Munich Reprints in Economics 19273, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, .
"Oil and the duration of dictatorships,"
2008-24, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2010. "Oil and the Duration of Dictatorships," Monash Economics Working Papers 10-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Oberhofer, Harald & Raschky, Paul, 2010. "Oil and the duration of dictatorships," Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2010-3, University of Salzburg.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I just ran four million regressions,"
Economics Working Papers
201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jess Benhabib & Alejandro Corvalan & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011.
"Reestablishing the income-democracy nexus,"
Working Paper Series
2011-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Adam Przeworski, 2005. "Democracy as an equilibrium," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 253-273, June.
- Axel Dreher, 2006.
"Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
- Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization," TWI Research Paper Series 6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universitï¿½t Konstanz.
- Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2011.
"Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database,"
2011-25, CEPII research center.
- Jan Fidrmuc, 2001.
"Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth During Post-Communist Transition,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
372, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth during Post-Communist Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Ward, Michael D., 2006. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(04), pages 911-933, October.
- Borooah, Vani K. & Paldam, Martin, 2007.
"Why is the world short of democracy?: A cross-country analysis of barriers to representative government,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 582-604, September.
- Vani K. Borooah & Martin Paldam, 2006. "Why is the World Short of Democracy? A Cross-Country Ananlysis of Barriers to Representative Government," ICER Working Papers 28-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Olsson, Ola, 2009. "On the democratic legacy of colonialism," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 534-551, December.
- Robert J. Barro, 1999.
"Determinants of Democracy,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S158-S183, December.
- World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8151.
- Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsg�Rd & Tarik M. Yousef, 2009. "The Logic Of Authoritarian Bargains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 93-125, 03.
- Edward E. Leamer, 2010. "Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 31-46, Spring.
- Micahael Tomz & Gary King & Langche Zeng, . "ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(i02).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.