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Loyalty for Sale? Military Spending and Coups d'Etat

  • Leon, G.

Coups d'etat continue to be common around the world, often leading to changes in leaders and institutions. We examine the relationship between military spending and coups and find that (i) successful coups increase military spending by more than failed attempts, and (ii) coups are more likely when military spending as a share of GDP is relatively low. Our identification strategy exploits the conditional independence between a coup's outcome and the change in military spending that follows it. We interpret this as evidence that the military may stage coups in order to increase its

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1209.

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Date of creation: 27 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1209
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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  1. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  2. Daniel Sutter, 2000. "A Game-Theoretic Model Of The CouP D'etat," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 205-223, 07.
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  8. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
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  10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005. "Income and Democracy," NBER Working Papers 11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gabriel Leon, 2009. "Soldiers or Bureaucrats?Conflict and the Military’s Role in Policy-Making," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 012, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  12. Besley, Timothy J. & Kudamatsu, Masayuki, 2007. "Making Autocracy Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 6371, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Ricard Gil, 2003. "Do Democracies Have Different Public Policies than Nondemocracies?," NBER Working Papers 10040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
  15. Simeon Djankov & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1035-1041, November.
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  17. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
  18. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
  19. Mbaku, John M, 1991. "Military Expenditures and Bureaucratic Competition for Rents," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 71(1-2), pages 19-31, August.
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