IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Does Food Security Matter for Transition in Arab Countries?:

  • Maystadt, Jean-François
  • Trinh Tan, Jean-François
  • Breisinger, Clemens

Expectations are high that transition in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen will bring about more freedom, justice, and economic opportunities. However, experiences from other world regions show that countries in transition are at high risk of entering conflicts, which often come at large economic, social and political costs. In order to identify options on how conflict may be prevented in Arab transition countries, this paper assesses the key global drivers of conflicts based on a dataset from 1960 to 2010 and improved cross-country regression techniques. Results show that unlike in other studies where per capita incomes, inequality, and poor governance, among other factors, emerge as the major determinants of conflict, food security at macro- and micro-levels emerges as the main cause of conflicts in the Arab world. This “Arab exceptionalism in conflict†suggests that improving food security is not only important for improving the lives of rural and urban people; it is also likely to be the key for a peaceful transition.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01196.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1196.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1196
Contact details of provider: Postal:
2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006

Phone: 202-862-5600
Fax: 202-467-4439
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Pedro Dal Bó & Ernesto Dal Bó, 2004. "Workers, Warriors and Criminals: Social Conflict in General Equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 642, Econometric Society.
  2. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per & Shimokawa, Satoru, 2008. "Do poverty and poor health and nutrition increase the risk of armed conflict onset?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 513-520, December.
  3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA.
  4. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Perrihan, Al-Riffai & Yu, Bingxin, 2012. "Beyond the Arab awakening: Policies and investments for poverty reduction and food security," Food policy reports 25, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Markus Brückner, 2010. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is there a Causal Link?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 535-550, 05.
  6. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Working Papers 2009-38, FEDEA.
  7. Simeon Djankov & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1035-1041, November.
  8. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2006. "Democracy and Development: The Devil in the Details," CEPR Discussion Papers 5499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
  10. Angrist, Joshua & Kugler, Adriana D., 2005. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income and Civil Conflict in Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 5324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Anca Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2010. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers 201002, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
  12. Akresh, Richard & de Walque, Damien, 2008. "Armed conflict and schooling : evidence from the 1994 Rwandan genocide," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4606, The World Bank.
  13. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2009. "Civil War," NBER Working Papers 14801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2012. "Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War," Working Papers id:4773, eSocialSciences.
  15. Karen Macours, 2011. "Increasing Inequality and Civil Conflict in Nepal," Post-Print halshs-00754570, HAL.
  16. Ianchovichina, Elena & Loening, Josef & Wood, Christina, 2012. "How vulnerable are Arab countries to global food price shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6018, The World Bank.
  17. Burke, Paul J. & Leigh, Andrew, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," IZA Discussion Papers 4808, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Gabbert, Silke & Weikard, Hans-Peter, 2001. "How widespread is undernourishment?: A critique of measurement methods and new empirical results," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 209-228, June.
  19. Larson, Donald F. & Lampietti, Julian & Gouel, Christophe & Cafiero, Carlo & Roberts, John, 2012. "Food security and storage in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6031, The World Bank.
  20. Chamarbagwala, Rubiana & Morán, Hilcías E., 2011. "The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 41-61, January.
  21. Rabah Arezki & Markus Bruckner, 2011. "Food Prices, Conflict, and Democratic Change," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  22. Shemyakina, Olga, 2011. "The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: Results from Tajikistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 186-200, July.
  23. James A Piazza, 2011. "Poverty, Minority Economic Discrimination, and Domestic Terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 339-353, May.
  24. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
  25. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2005. "Make Trade not War?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2008. "Wars and State Capacity," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 522-530, 04-05.
  27. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Report 2011," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4389.
  28. Berazneva, Julia & Lee, David R., 2013. "Explaining the African food riots of 2007–2008: An empirical analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-39.
  29. Frances Stewart, 2000. "Crisis Prevention: Tackling Horizontal Inequalities," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 245-262.
  30. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  31. Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal & Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin & S. Mansoob Murshed & Håvard Strand, 2011. "Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990-2003," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 377-398.
  32. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  33. Lotta Themnér & Peter Wallensteen, 2011. "Armed Conflict, 1946-2010," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(4), pages 525-536, July.
  34. Paul Collier & Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Democracy, Development, and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 531-540, 04-05.
  35. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
  36. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
  38. Juha Auvinen & E. Wayne Nafziger, 1999. "The Sources of Humanitarian Emergencies," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(3), pages 267-290, June.
  39. Smith, Lisa C. & Naiken, Logan, 1998. "Can FAO's measure of chronic undernourishment be strengthened?," FCND discussion papers 44, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  40. Smith, Lisa C., 1998. "Can FAO's measure of chronic undernourishment be strengthened?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 425-445, October.
  41. Nube, M., 2001. "Confronting Dietary Energy Supply with Anthropometry in the Assessment of Undernutrition Prevalence at the Level of Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1275-1289, July.
  42. Markus Bruckner, 2011. "Country Fixed Effects and Unit Roots: A Comment on Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the Evidence," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-17, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  43. Breisinger, Clemens & van Rheenen, Teunis & Ringler, Claudia & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Minot, Nicholas & Aragon, Catherine & Yu, Bingxin & Ecker, Olivier & Zhu, Tingju, 2010. "Food security and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 985, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.