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Food Prices, Conflict, and Democratic Change

Author

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  • Rabah Arezki

    () (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Markus Bruckner

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabah Arezki & Markus Bruckner, 2011. "Food Prices, Conflict, and Democratic Change," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:2011-04
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    File URL: http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/research/papers/doc/wp2011-04.pdf
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Political Instability and Commodity Prices
      by Kindred Winecoff in International Political Economy at the University of North Carolina on 2011-01-27 01:38:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    2. Verpoorten, Marijke & Arora, Abhimanyu, 2011. "Food Prices, Social Unrest and the Facebook Generation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114230, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Abidoye,Babatunde Oluwakayode & Cali,Massimiliano, 2015. "Income shocks and conflict : evidence from Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7213, The World Bank.
    4. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:1:p:195-232 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Astrid Sneyers, "undated". "Food, Drought and Conflict Evidence from a Case-Study on Somalia," HiCN Working Papers 252, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Massimiliano Calì & Alen Mulabdic, 2017. "Trade and civil conflict: Revisiting the cross-country evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 195-232, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    food prices; conflict; political institutions;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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