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Income Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria

Author

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  • Babatunde Abidoye
  • Massimiliano Calì

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between income shocks and conflict across Nigerian states over the 2000s. By matching consumption, production, commodity prices and conflict data, the analysis captures two opposite channels linking agricultural price changes to conflict. Consistently with the opportunity cost mechanism of conflict, price increases of commodities produced by the households have a conflict-reducing effect, while the opposite is true for prices of consumed commodities. The net impact turns out to be conflict inducing in contrast with most of the related literature that focuses on the production side of agricultural price shocks. These results underscore the importance of modelling both production and consumption effects to get consistent estimates of the impact of price changes on conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Babatunde Abidoye & Massimiliano Calì, 2021. "Income Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(5), pages 480-509.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:30:y:2021:i:5:p:480-509.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejab001
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335532 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Laville,Camille & Mandon,Pierre Jean-Claude, 2023. "Internal Conflicts and Shocks. A Narrative Meta-Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10315, The World Bank.
    3. Racek, Daniel & Thurner, Paul & Kauermann, Goeran, 2024. "Integrating Spatio-temporal Diffusion into Statistical Forecasting Models of Armed Conflict via Non-parametric Smoothing," OSF Preprints q59dr, Center for Open Science.
    4. Song, Chun & Scognamillo, Antonio & Mastrorillo, Marina, 2023. "The geographical disparity of climate security: climatic shocks, crop market and conflict in Northern Nigeria," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel), 2016. "Linking social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks to civil conflicts," Working Papers 2072/290744, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    6. Bertoni, Eleonora & Di Maio, Michele & Molini, Vasco & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. repec:osf:osfxxx:q59dr_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Humphreys, Aaron & Ubilava, David, 2025. "Prices and Protests: Evidence from Maize Markets Across Africa," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361190, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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