Prices and Protests: Evidence from Maize Markets Across Africa

We study the effect of local prices on conflict, using global prices as an instrument. Our analysis focuses on incidents of social unrest—protests and riots—observed at monthly frequency, and is based on a subset of local maize markets across multiple African countries. We find that an increase in the price of maize—a change that presumably benefits net producers but harms consumers reduces social unrest near markets with substantial crop agriculture. This effect is mitigated—and in some instances reversed—near markets characterised by ethnically diverse groups with varying involvement in crop agriculture. We relate these findings to the existing economics of conflict literature.