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The Impact of Forced Displacement on Host Communities: A Review of the Empirical Literature in Economics

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  • Paolo Verme

    (World Bank)

  • Kirsten Schuettler

    (World Bank)

Abstract

The paper reviews 54 empirical studies that estimated the impact of forced displacement on host communities. A review of the empirical models used by these studies and a meta-analysis of 868 separate results collected from these studies are the main contributions of the paper. Coverage extends to 18 major forced displacement crises that occurred between 1922 and 2016, to host countries at different levels of economic development and different types of forced migrants. The focus is on outcomes related to household well-being, prices, employment, and wages. All studies can be classified as ex-post quasi-natural experiments. The analysis on empirical modeling shows a preference for partial equilibrium modeling, differences-in-differences evaluation methods, and cross-section econometrics, with all these choices largely dependent on the type of data available. The meta-analysis on household well-being finds that the probability of a negative and statistically significant outcome for hosts (a decrease in well-being) is below 20%. The probability of finding a decrease in employment or wages for hosts is less than 30%. When this occurs, it is mostly related to female, informal and low-skilled workers. Results on prices show that the probability of finding changes in prices is around 80% equally distributed between increases and decreases in prices with increases mostly associated with food and rental prices. Overall, adverse effects are associated with larger crises and tend to vanish in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Verme & Kirsten Schuettler, 2019. "The Impact of Forced Displacement on Host Communities: A Review of the Empirical Literature in Economics," HiCN Working Papers 302, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:302
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced Displacement in History: Some Recent Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 9604, CESifo.
    2. Meltem Dayioglu & Murat Guray Kirdar & Ismet Koc, 2021. "The Making of a Lost Generation: Child Labor among Syrian Refugees in Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2105, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced displacement in history: Some recent research," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 2-25, March.
    5. Schneiderheinze, Claas & Lücke, Matthias, 2020. "Socio-economic impacts of refugees on host communities in developing countries," PEGNet Policy Studies 03/2020, PEGNet - Poverty Reduction, Equity and Growth Network, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Assaad, Ragui & Ginn, Thomas & Saleh, Mohamed, 2019. "Impact of Syrian Refugees on Education Outcomes in Jordan," CEPR Discussion Papers 14056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2020. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, tasks and capital intensity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Dang, Hai-Anh & Verme, Paolo, 2019. "Estimating Poverty for Refugee Populations: Can Cross-Survey Imputation Methods Substitute for Data Scarcity?," IZA Discussion Papers 12822, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Lidia Ceriani & Paolo Verme, 2019. "The inequality of extreme incomes," Working Papers 490, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    10. Beaman, Lori & Onder, Harun & Onder, Stefanie, 2022. "When do refugees return home? Evidence from Syrian displacement in Mashreq," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    11. d’Errico, Marco & Mariani, Rama Dasi & Pietrelli, Rebecca & Rosati, Furio Camillo, 2021. "Refugee-host proximity and market creation in Uganda," ESA Working Papers 309466, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    12. Boucher, Vincent & Tumen, Semih & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Wahba, Jackline & Zenou, Yves, 2021. "Ethnic Mixing in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment and a Structural Model," IZA Discussion Papers 14260, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Drouvelis, Michalis & Malaeb, Bilal & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Wahba, Jackline, 2021. "Cooperation in a fragmented society: Experimental evidence on Syrian refugees and natives in Lebanon," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 176-191.
    14. Marco d’Errico & Rama Dasi Mariani & Rebecca Pietrelli & Furio Camillo Rosati, 2022. "Refugee-Host Proximity and Market Creation in Uganda," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 213-233, February.
    15. Kuhnt, Jana, 2019. "Literature review: drivers of migration. Why do people leave their homes? Is there an easy answer? A structured overview of migratory determinants," Discussion Papers 9/2019, German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE).
    16. Jacob Nielsen Arendt & Christian Dustmann & Hyejin Ku, 2022. "Refugee Migration and the Labor Market: Lessons from 40 Years of Post-Arrival Policies in Denmark," CESifo Working Paper Series 9689, CESifo.
    17. Ayenew, Ashenafi Belayneh, 2021. "Welfare Impact of Hosting Refugees in Ethiopia," EconStor Preprints 228519, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Salemi, Colette, 2021. "Refugee camps and deforestation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Alhawarin, Ibrahim & Assaad, Ragui & Elsayed, Ahmed, 2021. "Migration shocks and housing: Short-run impact of the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    20. Hai-Anh Dang & Paolo Verme, 2021. "Estimating Poverty for Refugees in Data-scarce Contexts: An Application of Cross-Survey Imputation," Working Papers 578, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    21. Jacob Nielsen Arendt & Christian Dustmann & Hyejin Ku, 2022. "Refugee Migration and the Labor Market: Lessons from 40 Years of Post-arrival Policies in Denmark," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2209, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    22. Becker, SO, 2022. "Forced displacement in history:Some recent research," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 611, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    23. Justin George & Adesoji Adelaja, 2021. "Forced Displacement and Agriculture: Implications for Host Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, May.
    24. Dogu Tan Araci & Murat Demirci & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2102, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    25. Jon Echevarria-Coco & Javier Gardeazabal, 2021. "A Spatial Model of Internal Displacement and Forced Migration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 591-618, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; Returnees; Expellees; Escapees; Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs); Forced Migration; Forced Displacement; Host Communities; Labor Markets; Wages; Prices; Employment; Unemployment; Well-being JEL Classification: D12; E24; F22; F66; J08; J1; J2; J3; J4; J7; J8; N3; O15; P46; R2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets
    • J7 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination
    • J8 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

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