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The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market

Author

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  • Ege Aksu

    (The Graduate Center, CUNY)

  • Refik Erzan

    (Department of Economics Bogazici University)

  • Murat Güray Kırdar

    (Department of Economics Bogazici University)

Abstract

We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology—unlike recent papers in the same setting—makes a substantial difference in several key outcomes. Despite the massive size of the migrant influx, no adverse effects on the average wages of men or women or on total employment of men are observed. For women, however, total employment falls—which results mainly from the elimination of part-time jobs. While the migrant influx has adverse effects on competing native workers in the informal sector, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector. We estimate about one-to-one replacement in employment for native men in the informal sector, whereas both wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase. Increases in prices in the product market and in capital flow to the treatm nt regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Ege Aksu & Refik Erzan & Murat Güray Kırdar, 2019. "The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1915, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:1915
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Beerli & Jan Ruffner & Michael Siegenthaler & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers: Evidence from Switzerland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 976-1012, March.
    2. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Onur Altındağ & Neeraj Kaushal, 2021. "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 149-178, January.
    5. Aygün, Aysun & Güray Kırdar, Murat & Tuncay, Berna, 2021. "The effect of hosting 3.4 million refugees on native population mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Tumen, Semih, 2021. "The effect of refugees on native adolescents’ test scores: Quasi-experimental evidence from PISA," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2020. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, tasks and capital intensity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Bağır, Yusuf Kenan & Cilasun, Seyit Mümin & Kirdar, Murat G., 2020. "Consequences of a Massive Refugee Influx on Firm Performance and Market Structure," IZA Discussion Papers 13953, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Mayda, Anna Maria & Parsons, Christopher & Pham, Han & Vézina, Pierre-Louis, 2019. "Refugees and Foreign Direct Investment: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from U.S. Resettlements," IZA Discussion Papers 12860, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Aygün, Aysun Hızıroğlu & Kirdar, Murat G. & Tuncay, Berna, 2020. "The Effect of Hosting 3.4 Million Refugees on the Health System in Turkey and Infant, Child, and Elderly Mortality among Natives," IZA Discussion Papers 13627, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Erten, Bilge & Keskin, Pinar, 2021. "Female employment and intimate partner violence: Evidence from Syrian Refugee inflows to Turkey," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Kırdar, Murat G. & López Cruz, Ivan & Türküm, Betül, 2022. "The effect of 3.6 million refugees on crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 568-582.
    13. Altındağ, Onur & Bakış, Ozan & Rozo, Sandra V., 2020. "Blessing or burden? Impacts of refugees on businesses and the informal economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Lücke, Matthias & Neidhardt, Alberto-Horst & Ruhs, Martin & Özçürümez, Saime & Sundberg Diez, Olivia, 2021. "2020 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe. The EU and Turkey: Toward sustainable cooperation in migration management and refugee protection," MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), number 243291.
    15. Wahba Jackline & Nelly Elmallakh, 2021. "Syrian Refugees and the Migration Dynamics of Jordanians: Moving in or Moving out?," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2120, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    16. Işık Enes & Orhangazi Özgür & Tekgüç Hasan, 2020. "Heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on labor market outcomes: A case study from Turkey," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, March.
    17. Dogu Tan Araci & Murat Demirci & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2102, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    18. Doruk Cengiz & Hasan Tekgüç, 2022. "Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(3), pages 741-768, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Force and Employment; Wages; Immigrant Workers; Formal and Informal Sectors; Syrian Refugees; Turkey; Difference-in-differences; Instrumental Variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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