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The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market

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  • Ege Aksu
  • Refik Erzan
  • Murat Giray Kirdar

Abstract

We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology -unlike recent papers in the same setting- makes a substantial difference in several key outcomes. Despite the massive size of the migrant influx, no adverse effects on the average wages of men or women or on total employment of men are observed. For women, however, total employment falls -which results mainly from the elimination of part-time jobs. While the migrant influx has adverse effects on competing native workers in the informal sector, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector. We estimate about one-to-one replacement in employment for native men in the informal sector, whereas both wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase. Our findings, including those on the heterogeneity of effects by age and education, are consistent with the implications of the canonical migration model. In addition, increases in prices in the product market and in capital flow to the treatment regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ege Aksu & Refik Erzan & Murat Giray Kirdar, 2018. "The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market," Working Papers 2018/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2018/04
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    17. Dogu Tan Araci & Murat Demirci & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2102, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    18. Doruk Cengiz & Hasan Tekgüç, 2022. "Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(3), pages 741-768, May.
    19. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Bağır, Yusuf Kenan & Cılasun, Seyit Mümin & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2023. "Consequences of a massive refugee influx on firm performance and market structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Aygün, Aysun & Güray Kırdar, Murat & Tuncay, Berna, 2021. "The effect of hosting 3.4 million refugees on native population mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    23. Lücke, Matthias & Neidhardt, Alberto-Horst & Ruhs, Martin & Özçürümez, Saime & Sundberg Diez, Olivia, 2021. "2021 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe. The EU and Turkey: Toward sustainable cooperation in migration management and refugee protection," MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), number 243291.
    24. Abdullah Selim Öztek, 2021. "Minimum Wage Effects under Informality: Evidence from Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 98-136.

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    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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