IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/7402.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market

Author

Listed:
  • Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa
  • Wagner,Mathis Christoph

Abstract

Currently 2.5 million Syrians fleeing war have found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee-hosting country worldwide. This paper combines newly available data on the distribution of Syrian refugees across Turkey and the Turkish Labour Force Survey to assess their labor market impact. Syrian refugees are overwhelmingly employed informally, since they were not issued work permits, making their arrival a well-defined supply shock to informal labor. Consistent with economic theory our instrumental variable estimates, which also control for distance from the Turkish-Syrian border, suggest large-scale displacement of natives in the informal sector. At the same time, consistent with occupational upgrading, there are increases in formal employment for the Turkish - though only for men without completed high school education. Women and the high-skilled are not in a good position to take advantage of lower cost informal labor. The low educated and women experience net displacement from the labor market and, together with those in the informal sector, declining earning opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa & Wagner,Mathis Christoph, 2015. "The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7402, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7402
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/505471468194980180/pdf/WPS7402.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2015. "The Labor Market Impacts of Forced Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 581-586, May.
    2. Baez, Javier E., 2011. "Civil wars beyond their borders: The human capital and health consequences of hosting refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 391-408, November.
    3. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & van den Berg, Marcel & Hassink, Wolter, 2015. "The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 8841, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. George J. Borjas, 2006. "Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    5. Giovanni Peri, 2012. "The Effect Of Immigration On Productivity: Evidence From U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 348-358, February.
    6. Jean-François Maystadt & Philip Verwimp, 2014. "Winners and Losers among a Refugee-Hosting Population," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(4), pages 769-809.
    7. David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2010. "How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 913-945, June.
    8. Ximena Del Carpio & Çağlar Özden & Mauro Testaverde & Mathis Wagner, 2015. "Local Labor Supply Responses to Immigration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 493-521, April.
    9. Evren Ceritoglu & H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
    10. Kondylis, Florence, 2010. "Conflict displacement and labor market outcomes in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 235-248, November.
    11. Ozden,Caglar & Wagner,Mathis Christoph & Ozden,Caglar & Wagner,Mathis Christoph, 2014. "Immigrant versus natives ? displacement and job creation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6900, The World Bank.
    12. Dan A. Black & Seth G. Sanders & Evan J. Taylor & Lowell J. Taylor, 2015. "The Impact of the Great Migration on Mortality of African Americans: Evidence from the Deep South," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 477-503, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aslihan Atabek & Dan Andrews & Rauf Gonenc, 2017. "Rebalancing Turkey’s Growth by Improving Resource Allocation and Productivity in Manufacturing," Working Papers 1704, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Genicot, Garance & Mayda, Anna Maria & Mendola, Mariapia, 2016. "The Impact of Migration on Child Labor: Theory and Evidence from Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 10444, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Evren Ceritoglu & H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2017. "The impact of hosting refugees on the intra-household allocation of tasks: A gender perspective," WIDER Working Paper Series 066, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Bilal Malaeb & Jackline Wahba, 2018. "Impact of Refugees on Immigrants’ Labor Market Outcomes," Working Papers 1194, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 May 2018.
    6. Balkan, Binnur & Tok, Elif Ozcan & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11611, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. repec:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:10:p:2599-2630 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Altindag, Onur & Kaushal, Neeraj, 2017. "Do Refugees Impact Voting Behavior in the Host Country? Evidence from Syrian Refugee Inflows in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 10849, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Timothy J. Hatton, 2017. "Refugees and asylum seekers, the crisis in Europe and the future of policy," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 447-496.
    10. Stefan Seifert & Marica Valente, 2018. "An Offer that you Can't Refuse? Agrimafias and Migrant Labor on Vineyards in Southern Italy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1735, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Anda David & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Charbel Nahas & Björn Nilsson, 2018. "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon," Working Papers DT/2018/14, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2018. "The Migration of Fear: An Analysis of Migration Choices of Syrian Refugees," Working Papers 15-36, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    13. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Bansak, Cynthia & Pozo, Susan, 2018. "Refugee Admissions and Public Safety: Are Refugee Settlement Areas More Prone to Crime?," IZA Discussion Papers 11612, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. Bagir, Yusuf, 2017. "Impact of the Syrian Refugee Influx on Turkish Native Workers: An Ethnic Enclave Approach," MPRA Paper 80803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. d'Artis Kancs & Patrizio Lecca, 2018. "Long‐term social, economic and fiscal effects of immigration into the EU: The role of the integration policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2599-2630, October.
    17. Luecke, Matthias & Schneiderheinze, Claas, 2017. "More financial burden-sharing for developing countries that host refugees," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 11, pages 1-11.
    18. repec:jle:journl:177 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. K. Burggraeve & C. Piton, 2016. "The economic consequences of the flow of refugees into Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 43-61, June.
    20. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2018. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, skill mix and capital intensity," GLO Discussion Paper Series 186, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    21. Sandra Rozo & Juan F. Vargas, 2018. "Brothers or Invaders? How Crisis-driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior," Documentos de Trabajo LACEA 016836, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Protections&Assistance; Conflict and Fragile States;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.