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The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey : Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design

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  • Evren Ceritoglu
  • Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer
  • Huzeyfe Torun
  • Semih Tumen

Abstract

Civil conflict in Syria, started in March 2011, led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the MENA region and most of the Europe. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has somewhat affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document some employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. Formal employment increased slightly potentially due to increased social services in the region. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Formal employment and unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups – i.e., women, younger workers, and less-educated workers – have been affected the most. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives’ labor market outcomes. Overall, the impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might also be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Evren Ceritoglu & Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey : Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design," Working Papers 1705, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1705
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ege Aksu & Refik Erzan & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2018. "The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1815, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Aslihan Atabek & Dan Andrews & Rauf Gonenc, 2017. "Rebalancing Turkey’s Growth by Improving Resource Allocation and Productivity in Manufacturing," Working Papers 1704, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Fallah, Belal & Krafft, Caroline & Wahba, Jackline, 2019. "The impact of refugees on employment and wages in Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 203-216.
    4. Semih Tumen, 2015. "The use of natural experiments in migration research," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 191-191, October.
    5. repec:tcb:cebare:v:18:y:2018:i:4:p:129-147 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yusuf Emre Akgündüz & Marcel van den Berg & Wolter Hassink, 2018. "The Impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis on Firm Entry and Performance in Turkey," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(1), pages 19-40.
    7. repec:bis:bisbpc:100-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Suzuki, Ken & Paul, Saumik & Maru, Takeshi & Kusadokoro, Motoi, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market," ADBI Working Papers 935, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Bilal Malaeb & Jackline Wahba, 2018. "Impact of Refugees on Immigrants’ Labor Market Outcomes," Working Papers 1194, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 May 2018.
    10. Balkan, Binnur & Tok, Elif Ozcan & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11611, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. repec:bis:bisbps:100 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 3-30, Fall.
    13. Binnur Balkan & Semih Tumen, 2016. "Immigration and prices: quasi-experimental evidence from Syrian refugees in Turkey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 657-686, July.
    14. repec:spr:izalpo:v:7:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40173-018-0100-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Stefan Seifert & Marica Valente, 2018. "An Offer that you Can't Refuse? Agrimafias and Migrant Labor on Vineyards in Southern Italy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1735, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. repec:gam:jscscx:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:129-:d:116812 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Anda David & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Charbel Nahas & Björn Nilsson, 2018. "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon," Working Papers DT/2018/14, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    18. repec:zbw:medamr:182240 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Yusuf Kenan Bagir, 2018. "Impact of the Syrian refugee influx on Turkish native workers : An ethnic enclave approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(4), pages 129-147.
    21. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2015. "Migranten im deutschen Arbeitsmarkt: Löhne, Arbeitslosigkeit, Erwerbsquoten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(20), pages 39-47, October.
    22. Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa & Wagner,Mathis Christoph, 2015. "The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7402, The World Bank.
    23. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2018. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, skill mix and capital intensity," GLO Discussion Paper Series 186, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    24. Anda David & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Charbel Nahas & Björn Nilsson, 2018. "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries," Working Papers 20180001, UMR Développement et Sociétés, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Syrian civil conflict; Immigration; Turkey; Labor market; Informality; Difference in differences;

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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