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The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design

Author

Listed:
  • Ceritoglu, Evren

    () (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Gurcihan Yunculer, H. Burcu

    () (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Torun, Huzeyfe

    () (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Tumen, Semih

    () (TED University)

Abstract

Civil war in Syria, which started in March 2011, has led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Overall, unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups – i.e., females, younger workers, and less-educated workers – have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives' labor market outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceritoglu, Evren & Gurcihan Yunculer, H. Burcu & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2015. "The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design," IZA Discussion Papers 9348, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9348
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jscscx:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:129-:d:116812 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aslihan Atabek & Dan Andrews & Rauf Gonenc, 2017. "Rebalancing Turkey’s Growth by Improving Resource Allocation and Productivity in Manufacturing," Working Papers 1704, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Binnur Balkan & Semih Tumen, 2016. "Immigration and prices: quasi-experimental evidence from Syrian refugees in Turkey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 657-686, July.
    4. Semih Tumen, 2015. "The use of natural experiments in migration research," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 191-191, October.
    5. repec:zbw:medamr:182240 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bagir, Yusuf, 2017. "Impact of the Syrian Refugee Influx on Turkish Native Workers: An Ethnic Enclave Approach," MPRA Paper 80803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2015. "Migranten im deutschen Arbeitsmarkt: Löhne, Arbeitslosigkeit, Erwerbsquoten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(20), pages 39-47, October.
    8. Balkan, Binnur & Tok, Elif Ozcan & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11611, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa & Wagner,Mathis Christoph, 2015. "The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7402, The World Bank.
    10. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2018. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, skill mix and capital intensity," GLO Discussion Paper Series 186, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 3-30, Fall.
    12. repec:spr:izalpo:v:7:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40173-018-0100-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Stefan Seifert & Marica Valente, 2018. "An Offer that you Can't Refuse? Agrimafias and Migrant Labor on Vineyards in Southern Italy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1735, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    informality; labor market; Turkey; immigration; Syrian civil war; difference in differences;

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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