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Migración desde Venezuela en Colombia: caracterización del fenómeno y análisis de los efectos macroeconómicos

Author

Listed:
  • Ana María Tribín-Uribe
  • Achyuta Adhvaryu
  • Cesar Anzola-Bravo
  • Oscar Ávila-Montealegre
  • Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía
  • Juan Carlos Castro-Fernández
  • Luz A. Flórez
  • Ánderson Grajales-Olarte
  • Alexander Guarín
  • Franz Hamann
  • Didier Hermida-Giraldo
  • Gaurav Khanna
  • Francisco Lasso-Valderrama
  • Carlos Medina
  • Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra
  • Juan C. Mendez-Vizcaino
  • Leonardo Fabio Morales
  • Anant Nyshadam
  • Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro
  • Andrea Otero-Cortés
  • José Pulido
  • Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero
  • Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
  • Jorge Tamayo
  • Santiago Velásquez

Abstract

El siguiente artículo contribuye al estudio del fenómeno migratorio desde Venezuela en Colombia mediante un análisis de sus efectos y desafíos sobre el ajuste de la economía. El presente artículo se divide en dos módulos. En el primero se describe y se caracteriza la población migrante desde Venezuela en términos socio-económicos y demográficos y se indaga acerca sobre sus patrones de consumo y ahorro. En el segundo módulo se estudian las implicaciones del choque migratorio en tres diferentes esferas (i) el mercado laboral, principalmente se estudia el efecto sobre las tasas de ocupación, participación, desempleo y formalidad (ii) el el impacto fiscal que representa para la nación y, por último, (iii) el efecto en las variables macroeconómicas. Partícularmente se estudia la respuesta de la política monetaria ante el choque migratorio y la reacción de la brecha del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y la curva de Phillips ante escenarios con un mayor flujo de migración. ****** ABSTRACT: The following study contributes to the study of the migratory phenomenon from Venezuela in Colombia by analyzing its effects and challenges in the adjustment of the economy. This article is divided into two modules. In the first one, we describe and characterize the migrant population in socio-economic and demographic terms and we explore their consumption and savings patterns. In the second module we study the implications of the migratory shock in three main spheres (i) the labor market, mainly we study the effects on the occupancy, participation, unemployment and formality rates (ii) the fiscal impact it represents to the nation and, lastly, (iii) its effect on the macroeconomic variables. In particular, we analyze the monetary policy response to the shock and the reaction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gap and the Phillips curve in light of scenarios of increasing migrant flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana María Tribín-Uribe & Achyuta Adhvaryu & Cesar Anzola-Bravo & Oscar Ávila-Montealegre & Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Juan Carlos Castro-Fernández & Luz A. Flórez & Ánderson Grajales-Olarte & Alexander , 2020. "Migración desde Venezuela en Colombia: caracterización del fenómeno y análisis de los efectos macroeconómicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 97, pages 1-74, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:y:2020:i:97:p:1-74
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Knight & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2020. "Immigration and Violent Crime: Evidence from the Colombia-Venezuela Border," Borradores de Economia 1121, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migración desde Venezuela; Migración internacional; Mercados laborales; Efectos macroeconómicos; Colombia; Migration from Venezuela; International Migration; Labor Markets; Macroeconomic Effects; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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